Trump’s devoted base is really shrinking now

Few factors in American politics over the past decade have stood out quite like President Donald Trump’s dominance of his base.

Lacking broad popularity, the conventional wisdom has long been that Trump commands such intense loyalty from so much of his base that it makes him a powerful force.

There is growing reason to believe that this conventional wisdom is no longer valid.

A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll is the latest data point to show that Trump’s loyal base has not only shrunk significantly, but is also historically quite small.

Post Ipsos survey Only 15% of Americans said they strongly approve of Trump; This figure corresponds to less than 1 in every 6 people. This is a record low in the history of the survey.

For context, Past Post and ABC Post polls Following his inauguration and in February 2025, 27% of Americans expressed strong approval of Trump. And in the days after the divisive Capitol attack on January 6, 2021, that number was also 27%.

Other notable points from the new survey:

• For the first time, a significant portion of his supporters approved of him only “somewhat” (22%) rather than “strongly” (15%), according to the pollster’s data.

• Only 41 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of 2024 Trump voters strongly approved of him.

• And while only 6% of independents strongly approved of him, 51% strongly approved of him. not approved strongly

The survey is not a coincidence. In fact, this is at least the fourth high-quality poll to show the percentage of people who strongly approve of Trump falling into his mid-teens.

while last Quinnipiac University survey While 27% showed strong approval of Trump (in this case, the number of registered voters), other polls show that number to be significantly lower. In other surveys, this rate was 21% (NPR-PBS-Marist), 20% (Fox News), 19% (AP-NORC), 16% (Marquette Law School), 15% (Post-Ipsos) and 14% (Reuters-Ipsos).

Some of these are record lows. Others are close to where Trump was early in his first term.

But in most recent high-quality polls, the percentage of Americans who strongly approve of Trump ranges from 1 in 7 to 1 in 5.

This hardly portrays a man with an iron fist over a large-scale political movement. He could unseat some of his fellow Republicans in low-turnout primaries dominated by the most passionate voters. But few Americans see what Trump is doing and strongly support him.

Another important point: Historically speaking, the size of Trump’s loyal base is not that large.

In fact, that’s only slightly larger than it was late in Joe Biden’s term, as the CNN poll shows. 11% Biden has strong approval ratings, with a Reuters-Ipsos poll pegging the number at: 12%.

Obama’s strong approval numbers From time to time I fell among the young people at their lowest point, but that was rare. In fact, this has only happened once in a Washington Post-ABC poll, reaching 18%. Obama was mostly in their late 20s or 30s – Almost double Trump’s current position.

And George W. Bush’s strong approval numbers did not drop into the mid-teens until the middle of his sixth year in office in 2006. Eventually, some polls showed Bush’s numbers actually falling into single digits.

Trump isn’t that low yet. But this is the latest evidence that his base is no longer what it used to be, or at least not what it used to be.

There have been polls for months showing many Republicans We disapprove of Trump on important issuesThe number of voters is increasing second guessed and even regretted They voted for him in 2024 and Support for White was declining among working-class voters.

But arguably the most important thing is the number of people who say they really like what they do. And that’s a vanishingly small portion of the American people right now.

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