Trump’s rare earth deals target China’s dominance — here’s why change won’t come soon
TOKYO, JAPAN – OCTOBER 28: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (R) hold signed documents regarding the critical minerals/rare earth agreement with Japan during a meeting at Akasaka Palace on October 28, 2025 in Tokyo, Japan.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News
US President Donald Trump’s push to strike rare earth supply deals across Asia will ultimately weaken China’s dominance of the global supply chain for critical minerals; But analysts say this increase will take years.
Over the course of 10 days, Trump signed agreements with Australia, Malaysia, Cambodia and, most recently, Japan to support supplies of rare earth elements and other critical minerals that are vital in making batteries, automobiles, defense systems and computer chips.
The flurry of deals, part of Washington’s bid to counter Beijing’s pressure on the industry, comes ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan on Thursday.
The agreements “could greatly benefit from being linked together in a multilateral agreement with strong commitments, financing and pooling of resources,” said Wendy Cutler, senior vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He expects more such deals to be made under the Trump administration.
Trump and Xi are expected to address many contentious issues that have disrupted long-running trade talks, including Beijing’s rare earth export controls and Washington’s tariff threats and technology restrictions.
In the medium term we will get rid of the Chinese supply chain, but in the short term there is still a heavy dependence on China.
Dennis Wilder
senior fellow at Georgetown University
Trump’s latest victory an agreement The agreement with Japan aimed to secure supplies of raw and processed critical minerals, as well as promising funding for selected projects over the next six months. Previous agreements with Australia Malaysia And Thailand it also outlined multibillion-dollar plans, commitments to fair trade practices and avoiding export bans or quotas.
While Trump’s deals would bring much-needed financial support to the industry and could eventually challenge Beijing’s crackdown on rare earths, experts said the efforts would be costly and take years to bear fruit.
“What we’re trying to do now is get rid of the Chinese as the primary supply chain, but that’s going to take time,” said Dennis Wilder, a former senior U.S. intelligence official and now a senior fellow at Georgetown University.
“In the medium term we will get rid of the Chinese supply chain, but in the short term there is still a huge dependence on China,” Wilder emphasized.
Goldman Sachs estimates it will take up to a decade to develop new rare earth mines, with known reserves for certain elements being “very small” outside Myanmar and China, while building refineries will take about 5 years.
According to the bank’s estimates, China dominates 69% of the rare earth mining market share, 92% of refining and 98% of magnet production.
Level playing field
Brodie Sutherland, CEO of U.S.-based critical minerals developer Patriot Critical Minerals Corp, said these deals are “game changers” that could reduce U.S. vulnerability to Beijing’s export controls, stabilize rare earth prices and accelerate domestic innovative refining and recycling.
With guaranteed access to raw materials from friendly countries, American companies can focus on efficient extraction, ethical mining and value-added processing, Sutherland said.
He also cited long-term benefits such as lower risk premiums on financing, faster permitting of new fields and a “level playing field against subsidized foreign competitors.”
Mike Rosenberg, professor of strategic management at IESE Business School, said China had allowed rare earth prices to fluctuate in very “strategic” ways to make projects in other countries unprofitable.
Rosenberg added that global miners and refiners must be able to make investments that guarantee a reasonable return by using public funds to support these projects.
But efforts to diversify and reshore production will inevitably mean: Some environmental concessions were accepted, experts said.
Rosenberg noted that extracting and refining rare earth materials in an environmentally friendly way is “very, very expensive,” while China keeps costs low by limiting environmental controls.
“Consumers may be forced to accept higher prices for electronics and green technologies that reflect their true material and environmental costs,” said Patrick Schröder, senior research fellow at the Chatham House Center for Environment and Society.
The policy move has also led to a rally in several rare earth miners listed in the US this year. Shares listed in New York Multi-Purpose Materials and Trilogy Metals each more than quadrupled, Energy Fuels tripled, meanwhile Critical Metals According to LSEG data, it increased by approximately 90%, while US Rare Earth increased by approximately 75%.
wake up call
Analysts said Trump was rushing to sign these deals to gain leverage ahead of his meeting with Xi, likely in Seoul this week.
US officials said earlier this week that they expected China to delay imposing export controls on critical minerals by a year as part of a broader trade agreement. It cools the rise in mining stocks.
“Beijing’s latest threat of sweeping extra-regional export restrictions in this sector has served as a necessary wake-up call for partners around the world,” said Cutler of the Asia Social Policy Institute.
Wilder, from Georgetown University, stated that China may have miscalculated on export controls that shook the global economy and expanded the trade war to other countries, stating that “this is not in China’s interest.”
“It was a useful weapon when it targeted the United States, but when you try to spread it to the rest of the world it becomes less useful,” Wilder said. “Because then you bring the rest of the world to the United States in many ways.”
