‘Trying times’: farmers stare down trifecta of troubles

There’s a saying on the Weston brothers’ property: “Every day it doesn’t rain, another day gets closer.”

“So tomorrow is one day closer to rain, right?” Farmer Mark Weston told AAP after a long morning spent feeding sheep in the unseasonably hot autumn sunshine.

This wisdom was passed down to Mark and Dave Weston from their father, who raised them on the family’s extensive sheep, cattle and produce farming operation at Cumnock in central western NSW.

Fifth-generation farmers continue this philosophy as we approach winter, where there has been insufficient rainfall for more than six months.

Cumnock, south of Dubbo, lies on the edge of a large area of ​​inland NSW thought to be affected by drought, with the drought extending into parts of southern Queensland.

While wheat and canola crops, usually knee-high and available for grazing in late autumn, struggle to emerge from the arid soil, the brothers feed their sheep and prepare to sell their cattle.

Crop stubble covers the property as crowds of Merinos kick up dust as they rush towards generous drops of hay and barley.

“Everything revolves around rain. Everything,” says Dave Weston.

“Tough times.”

Like farmers across Australia, the Westons are grappling with what the season will bring to them, while also factoring in unpredictable prices and supplies of fuel and fertilizer.

Some of the Westons’ decisions — like keeping sheep in their enclosures to keep animals healthy and give their pastures a rest — are shaped by previous dry seasons.

The brothers quickly stocked up on diesel and were grateful for their stores of urea in the days after the outbreak of the Iranian war.

The price of fertiliser, which Australia imports largely from the Middle East, has nearly doubled to $1400 a tonne and will not run out of crops this season.

Plans for pasture cultivation will be postponed for a year.

“You have to deal with what’s going on every day,” Mark says emphatically.

“You can’t let this worry you too much, or you’ll get depressed.”

Farmers in NSW and Queensland are rapidly destocking; The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-term forecast warns that rainfall is likely to be below average across much of eastern Australia between May and July.

Both states experienced record cattle sales on farms and a dramatic increase on the online agricultural marketplace AuctionsPlus.

More than 20,000 NSW Northern Tablelands cattle were put on the platform in April at the request of buyers in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania as drought conditions eased in the southern states.

Chief executive Wyn Snyman says despite drought being a key factor, record online sales figures show manufacturers are finding ways to avoid the high costs of moving stock into warehouses.

While prices remain strong, the rush to destock also reflects lessons learned from the 2017-19 drought.

“Manufacturers trying to stay afloat as best they could were forced to sell in very crowded markets and then became just price takers,” Mr. Snyman says.

“So a lot of manufacturers are already planning ahead.”

After recording 150mm below average rainfall in 2025, Northern NSW grazier Andrew Baker received just over 40mm of rainfall on his properties in the first four months of the year.

Mr Baker has sold 250 head of cattle and will start feeding the rest in the next few weeks.

He is considering installing a reticulated water system on his land near the NSW-Queensland border, but tight global oil supplies have affected the production of plastic tanks and poly pipes.

For now, he spends most of his time searching for livestock and wildlife trapped in muddy, drying dams.

“You hear about rain in Queensland, cyclones coming, coastal flooding… but I don’t think people realize how dry it is out here,” Mr Baker says.

“Things are getting a little difficult here.”

Western Australian farmers are carefully considering crop mixes and the extent of land to be planted as the availability of fertilizer remains uncertain in the largest state.

WA Pastoralists and Graziers Association president Digby Stretch said freight costs had risen by $1 a week per tonne in March due to diesel prices.

However, farmers have previously raised similar fuel and fertilizer concerns after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

“We will all be trying to carry more fuel and more liquid fertilizer to protect ourselves from such risks in the coming years,” Mr. Stretch says.

“And we will certainly work hard with governments to achieve something better than the three- to four-year vision of election cycles that they’ve been pursuing.”

Mr Snyman says the ability to act according to circumstances is deeply ingrained in Australian farmers.

“They are truly at the forefront of change,” he says.

“In them, the climate is changing, prices are changing, inputs are changing, the regulatory environment is changing.

“The only thing they are constantly exposed to is how they react to these changes… I take my hat off to these producers.”