UK gas supply ‘will meet demand over the summer’ despite Middle East crisis

Despite a significant rise in prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the UK is expected to have sufficient gas supplies to meet the demands of households and businesses this summer.

The country’s gas system operator, National Gas, has confirmed that Great Britain’s gas stocks are estimated to be sufficient, with some exports to mainland Europe even permitted.

The announcement comes after National Gas announced its outlook for summer 2026 amid a volatile environment in global energy markets.

Oil and gas prices have risen sharply since late February following clashes between US-Israeli and Iranian forces.

For example, UK natural gas futures rose to around 120.7 pence per therm on Monday; this was a notable increase from around 78 pence per therm before the escalation of the conflict.

Instability has led to many liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities in Qatar and other parts of the Middle East being targeted with missiles.

In addition, there were serious disruptions in exports from the region due to problems in the important shipping corridor in the Strait of Hormuz.

National Gas emphasized that the UK’s gas needs will be met primarily by resources extracted from the UK Continental Shelf and imports from Norway.

Approximately 86% (25.3 billion cubic meters) of the total gas supply is expected to come from these sources.

National Gas said it expected this volume would be enough to exceed the estimated demand of Great Britain and the gas exported to Ireland.

However, he added that about 5% of the total supply will come from flexible gas storages and about 9% will come from LNG imports.

The forecasts were prepared ahead of the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, but National Gas said it had since reviewed its analysis and concluded that the market was still expected to have sufficient capacity and capability to meet the forecasts.

Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: “While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts suggest the market has the capacity to provide sufficient supply to meet demand this summer.

“The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norwegian, LNG and storage, provides flexibility and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change.”

According to projections, gas demand is expected to be similar to summer 2025.

National Gas expects a reduction in demand for gas used to generate electricity of around 6%, but said this would be largely offset by an expected 2% increase in daily unmetered demand from residential and commercial consumers.

Ian Radley, commercial director at National Gas, said: “Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months.

“As renewable generation fluctuates, it becomes increasingly necessary for gas-fired power plants to respond quickly, and the network needs to be able to support this safely and reliably.

“It is important that ongoing, coordinated action between government, industry and regulators continues to address future risks from reduced domestic production and increased reliance on imports.”