UK home sales plunge by 41% year-on-year with end of stamp duty holiday blamed for ‘distorting’ market
According to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data, house sales in the UK decreased by 41 percent in March compared to the same month last year.
The sharp year-on-year decline was mainly due to heavy transactions in March 2025 as buyers attempted to complete purchases before the stamp duty holiday ended.
Around 104,070 properties were sold across the UK in March 2026. Although there was a significant decrease on an annual basis, this figure was 1 percent higher than the previous month and marked the highest sales figure recorded since March 2025.
Loosening mortgage interest rates have recently been on the rise amid conflicts in the Middle East.
“March transaction data points to a degree of resilience in the UK housing market as activity maintains momentum at long-term averages despite ongoing economic pressures,” said Frances McDonald, research director at Savills.
“But these figures were likely boosted by those looking to lock in mortgage offers and trade ahead of further interest rate rises. Many of these deals would have been agreed before the conflict in the Middle East and are under construction.”
“The real impact of the latest wave of uncertainty is likely to become more evident in the coming months as pre-conflict mortgage offers begin to expire.”
Tom Bill, Knight Frank’s head of UK housing research, said: “Home loan rates have risen in recent weeks, given the length of the conflict and the confusion about the extent to which it could escalate.”
Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director of Fine & Country, said: “The 41 per cent decline relates to last year’s deterioration rather than a sudden deterioration in demand.
“It is also worth remembering that these figures reflect completions on agreed sales, which are typically two to four months late. With this in mind, ongoing headwinds affecting affordability may take slightly longer to be reflected in the market.”
Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, said: “Home loan rate volatility weighed on sentiment at the start of the year, but there are early signs of improving confidence as swap rates ease and lenders begin to reduce fixed-rate products.”
North London estate agent Jeremy Leaf said: “The ‘need to move’ is looking more realistic when it comes to negotiations, but the sheer selection of flats in particular means it’s taking longer to get commitments and some prices have softened a bit.
“Demand for small family homes has remained relatively strong, as we would expect for this time of year.”
Nathan Emerson, managing director of property professional society Propertymark, said: “As consumers prepare for the traditionally busy spring months to buy and perhaps sell a property, they should keep a close eye on mortgage deals and future affordability to ensure continuity in household budgeting in the event of future jumps in inflation.
“Propertymark’s industry data has recently shown a peak in the number of residential transactions taking more than 17 weeks to complete. With the current uncertainty in the economy, there is potential for this figure to trend further upwards.”
