UK supply chain unprepared for major shocks such as war, report warns | Defence policy
Ministers have been warned that Britain’s vital supply chains are unprepared for the possibility of a major shock such as war with Russia and that bold steps must be taken to catch up with European states’ “worst-case scenario” planning.
Donald Trump’s “America First” transformation of the United States, which has made what was once a trusted British ally a far less reliable partner, should also support this planning, according to a new report.
The warnings are contained in research by the National Preparedness Commission (NPC), which supports national crisis planning and is overseen by a panel including senior figures from the emergency services, the NHS and risk and safety experts.
The calls coincide with ongoing concerns about the impact of the war in the Middle East on fuel costs and prices of food and other goods in the UK; In this case, the government recently asked supermarkets to consider freezing the prices of some essential items.
The report, unveiled privately at Westminster last week, sheds light on the resilience of Britain’s supply chain and how it could be tested by dangers ranging from a new pandemic to the climate crisis or the war with Russia that is currently focusing officials’ minds.
Stating that the UK lags behind other European countries in stocking supplies such as critical medicines, the organization called for new thinking.
“The conversation in government needs to focus from why we shouldn’t stockpile to how and where we can do so most sensibly. It’s easy to forget that during the pandemic the UK has benefited from stockpiling medicines to avoid disrupted supplies as we leave the EU,” he said.
In terms of healthcare-only stocking, pharmaceutical suppliers are required to maintain at least eight weeks of buffer stock for hospitals, but this compliance is sporadic and not mandatory for pharmacies providing primary care.
It was also stated that the government does not intend to create a critical medicines list or strategically stockpile critical medicines or medical equipment, other than to assist military personnel in the event of a CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) attack.
In contrast, many EU countries require pharmaceutical companies to maintain a one- to six-month buffer stock of certain drugs.
The UK is one of the least self-sufficient countries in Europe when it comes to food supply. The government neither has a strategic stockpile nor does it require large wholesalers and distributors to maintain buffer stocks. In contrast, countries such as Norway and Sweden have begun to rebuild emergency grain and food reserves, while other EU countries are proactively encouraging households to store several days’ worth of food and water for emergencies.
The report, Future-proofed Supply Security in a Contested World, warned that recent global events such as the Iran war and repeated disruptions in international relations raise profound questions about the UK’s ability to access future raw materials and components.
Britain is also in danger of being squeezed by what the report describes as the “stubborn nationalism” of the US, the cooperation of EU states, China’s manufacturing industry and Russia’s war economy foundations.
Nearly a year after the government’s national security strategy was published, initiatives such as the move took place. Giving priority to British suppliers in contracts in sectors vital to national security and is being called for by Keir Starmer for a “whole of society” approach to security and resilience.
But there are concerns that the House of Commons defense committee has lost focus on the issue due to other political distractions. reported last November The “national conversation” targeted by the Prime Minister has not yet begun, with little public participation and no clear central direction.
“It is a mistake to assume that catastrophic events will not occur,” the NPC report warned.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of regional air traffic due to the US-Israeli war with Iran in March 2026 are the latest wake-up calls regarding the flexibility of the supply chain,” the statement said. These, along with the war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic, each had the effect of “exposing known vulnerabilities and exposing under-appreciated vulnerabilities”.
The UK now risks falling behind other countries in efforts to secure medium- and long-term supplies of critical materials, components and other vital goods, said Richard Smith-Bingham, a strategic advisor on risk and resilience and former head of insight at insurance broker and risk consultant Marsh.
“Hard choices must be made and bolder actions must be taken to reduce our vulnerability to challenge and ensure that we are better prepared for the sustained crises we may face,” he added.
A government spokesman said: “The UK’s supply chains are strong and resilient and we are actively monitoring risks.
“We have shown that we can act quickly when pressures arise and have recently reopened a CO2 plant in the northeast to increase production and preserve resources.”
