UK urged not to further weaken EV rules as CO2 impact revealed | Automotive industry

Campaigners have urged the government to resist calls to ease electric car sales rules further, as an analysis revealed that vehicles on UK roads will emit an extra 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, mostly due to changes made last year.

Some sections of the car industry have called on ministers to take a second look at rules that force manufacturers to sell increasing numbers of electric cars each year.

But environmental groups and the charging industry have said further slimming would undermine the move away from internal combustion engines.

The zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate was introduced under the Conservatives in 2023, with the aim of forcing car manufacturers to increase electric car sales by up to 80% by 2030. But Labor weakened the rules last year and added so-called “flexibility” loopholes that mean carmakers can sell more cars with petrol engines.

Automakers responded this year with a 48% increase in sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which combine a small battery and a gasoline engine.

An extra 59 billion miles will be driven using petrol and diesel engines in cars and vans, compared with estimates before the ZEV mandate changed, according to an industry analysis seen by the Guardian. updated predictions by the Department for Transport (DfT).

According to UK government average emissions figures, these extra kilometers will add an extra 17 million tonnes of direct carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. equivalent to every Ryanair flight departing from Europe for a yearor the annual production of a small country like Croatia. Battery electric cars produce zero direct carbon emissions.

DfT attributed The increase in the use of gasoline and diesel vehicles is due to changes in the ZEV mandate, which allows automakers to sell more PHEVs; but the increase also appears to reflect other changes in government models. The DfT also said fewer PHEV drivers were using battery mode than previously thought.

The government has committed to reviewing ZEV’s mandate in early 2027.

Colin Walker, head of transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think tank, said: “If the government weakens the mandate further it could lead to more motorists being sold PHEVs, which, far from saving money, are much more expensive to run than their manufacturers claim and cost hundreds or even thousands of pounds more per year to buy and run than an electric car.”

For the charging industry, fewer electric cars on the road will mean lower profits, despite spending cash to create more charging points.

Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK, a lobby group for charging companies, said: “The charging industry is channeling billions of pounds into building infrastructure on the promise of future customers based on forecasts set by the ZEV mandate.

“Last year’s revisions to quotas were not tweaks but a significant change that has already undermined the sector’s investment case. A rollback before the dust has calmed would pull the rug out from under the charging sector and threaten a downward spiral throughout the entire transition.”

Automobile manufacturers continue to lobby intensively to further weaken the rules, arguing that they are too tiring. Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Association of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, a car industry lobby group, said it was “now urgent to review the transition to ensure the target matches market realities”.

Manufacturers face the possibility of fines if they fail to meet mandate targets, but their new PHEV flexibility gives them a lower bar to clear. Analysis by New AutoMotive, another think tank, suggests that this year’s 33% electric sales rate could theoretically be as low as 7% if a manufacturer fully exploits flexibilities, including PHEV sales.

Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive, said: “Car manufacturers are rewarded under government schemes if they sell more of these cars.

“The evidence is clear that plug-in hybrids fail to deliver the fuel savings promised and do not offer the country a way to improve energy security.”

Undercounting emissions from PHEVs is also a big factor in why automakers are underreporting carbon pollution from their products, according to research from Carbon Tracker, a research group. It has been revealed that the largest car manufacturers underestimate the carbon dioxide produced by their vehicles by an average of a third.

A government spokesman said: “We remain committed to phasing out all new non-zero-emission car and van sales by 2035. With May setting a new record for electric vehicle registrations, we are investing more than £7.5bn to grow the market and deliver infrastructure.

“Owning an EV has never been easier or cheaper, especially considering the high and fluctuating prices at the pumps.”