US attacks in Iran could reshape the battlefield in Ukraine and weaken Moscow
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A few hours after American munitions hit Iranian territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy issued a statement that the Western press largely treated as a diplomatic footnote; However, this was a sign that what was happening in the skies of Tehran would directly affect Ukraine’s turf.
Describing Iran as “Putin’s accomplice”, President Zelenskyy targeted Moscow, noting that his country has absorbed more than 57,000 drone attacks provided by Iran: “When America has determination, global criminals are weakened. This understanding should also come to the Russians.”
It is no coincidence that Zelenskyy frames the war in Iran through the lens of the Ukraine war. Whatever Washington’s stated goals, the president who has lived through the Ukraine conflict since the 2022 invasion understands that Iran is an active accomplice in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and that the United States is now taking action against that accomplice.
By striking the Iranian regime that provided Russia with the Shahed drones (and the ability to produce them) that have been terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population for more than four years, Washington has eliminated an important Russian ally that would negatively impact Russia’s ability to wage war in Europe.
When Iranian-supplied drones began falling on Kiev in October 2022, reducing apartment blocks to rubble and plunging cities into darkness, the world quickly learned a new word: Shahed. Shahed-136 is not an advanced weapon. Not fast (although developments in Russia have significantly increased its capabilities). It’s not as accurate as a cruise missile. This is a weapon of civilian terrorism that was always planned to be in Russia’s possession.
Russian Shahed’s targets are power plants and apartment buildings. The destruction they create also contributes to power outages that leave families without light and heat during the winter months. The triangular silhouette that Ukrainians have learned to fear in the night sky, the faint whirring of the propeller, sends people running for shelter. I saw Shahads soaring from Ukrainian airspace towards civilian targets. In the dark, I sided with the interceptors doing everything they could to take out the Shaheds before they found their target. Images of these drones flying into buildings in Kiev represent the human cost of Iran’s harmful contribution to the war in Ukraine.
Iran signed a $1.75 billion contract for additional drones and complete production plans in early 2023. Russia later established its own production facility in Tatarstan. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia is currently producing up to 1,000 modified Geran drones a day using Iranian-derived technology. Essentially, Tehran gave Moscow the blueprint for the terror campaign against civilians that Russia had industrialized on its territory.
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Beyond drones, Iran delivered nearly $3 billion in ballistic and surface-to-air missiles before and during the invasion, including hundreds of Fath-360 ballistic missiles, numerous anti-aircraft systems, and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells; The total value of weapons exceeded 4 billion dollars.
Iran’s munitions have filled Russia’s stockpile, dashing Western hopes that Russia could quickly run out of bullets, drones and missiles. In return, Russia offered Iran the S-400 air defense system, Su-35 fighter jets, nuclear reactor construction and geopolitical protection in the UN Security Council. A 20-year strategic partnership was formalized in early 2024. This was an axis that encompassed military, nuclear, financial and diplomatic dimensions, and that axis has been remarkably fragmented due to US action in Iran. Russian Foreign Minister Dmitry Peskov stated in a recent statement that Russia will not comply with the defense agreement with Iran because Iran signed an agreement with Ayatollah Khamenei and Khamenei was killed.
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However, Russia’s most important strategic partner, China, continues to supply Russia’s military-industrial complex with large quantities of microelectronics and components on a scale that is beyond Iran’s reach. But Beijing has carefully avoided direct transfers of lethal hardware to maintain a degree of deniability. Iran, on the other hand, filled the gap that China deliberately left open: front-line weapons and production plans were deployed without hesitation.
Russia has fully localized Shahed production, even improving the original design with more sophisticated and expensive Geran variants. The Iranian government’s 50-year legacy of terrorism will continue to live not only in Middle Eastern countries but also in Europe as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
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With the US campaign hoped to last at least a few weeks, Iran’s ability to procure additional ballistic missiles is now compromised. The ability to upgrade drone designs at home and offer replacement components has weakened. Moreover, every Russian asset potentially diverted to protect a battered Iran, be it air defense systems, aircraft components, logistics, is an asset not available in Zaporizhzhia or Kherson. Moscow is now weakened, burdened by a helpless partner, at the very moment when it is least able to distract it.
This represents a different pressure on Russia than sanctions or battlefield aid, which operate through partnership networks and supply chains that sustain Russia’s war effort. Zelenskyy’s prescient statement that every act of aggression would eventually be met with a fair response was directed at Moscow and Tehran. While Ukraine may not be Washington’s primary consideration when President Trump decides to attack Iran, the calculus of war in Ukraine will become more complicated for Russia, and that’s a good thing for Ukrainians fighting for their right to survive.
