US–Iran War Day 53: Last hours for peace? Ceasefire nears expiry as Trump warns ‘bombs will go off’ & Iran threatens Hormuz; Markets watch nervously
- US President Donald Trump stated that it was “very unlikely” that the ceasefire would be extended and warned, “If the ceasefire ends, many bombs will begin to explode.”
- Washington said Vice President JD Vance was ready to return to Islamabad for a second round of talks.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Galibaf accused the United States of violating the ceasefire through a naval blockade.
- “We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats… We are preparing to show new cards on the battlefield,” he said.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also warned that it could target ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of the world’s oil.
Maritime tension increases in the Strait of Hormuz
- The United States accuses Iran of harassing ships in the strait, while Tehran says Washington’s blockade is illegal.
- Shipping watchdog Lloyd’s List reported that more than 20 Iranian “shadow ships” passed through the region despite US restrictions.
- Trump insisted the pressure campaign would continue: “The blockade is absolutely destroying Iran and will not end until a ‘DEAL’ is reached.”
Economic Pressure Is Increasing in Iran
- In Tehran, residents stated that the economic situation had worsened despite the temporary lull in the conflict.
- A doctor said, “Let’s see what happens by Tuesday.”
- “The economy is terrible,” another resident said.
Parallel Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire remains fragile
- A separate ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, involving Hezbollah, also continued uneasily.
- New talks are planned for Washington, although sporadic violence continues and tensions remain high along the border.
- The United Nations Security Council condemned the killing of a French peacekeeper in Southern Lebanon.
Nuclear Dispute Complicates Negotiations
- A major sticking point remains Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.
- Trump claimed that Tehran had agreed to hand over the site, which Iran denied.
- Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said: “The stock will not be transferred anywhere… it was never raised as an option.”
Indian markets opened in green
- India’s stock markets opened positively on the 53rd day of the US-Iran war; Global uncertainty continued to keep investor sentiment cautious as the ceasefire deadline approached.
- BSE Sensex rose 212.15 points or 0.27% to 78,732.45 in early trade, while NSE Nifty 50 opened at 24,374.55 at 9.15 am, up 9.70 points or 0.04%.
Markets Show Early Resilience Despite Global Uncertainty
- While domestic equities initially showed strength, global cues remained mixed.
- Futures contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.11% to 49,496.22, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite decreased, showing that investors globally were cautious.
Commodities Respond to Geopolitical Tensions
Among commodities, oil and gold prices softened due to uncertainty:
- Brent Crude Oil traded at $95.03 per barrel, down 0.47%
- Gold prices dropped to $4,794.70
Ceasefire Uncertainty Affects Emotions
Enrich Money CEO Ponmudi R emphasized that the markets are very sensitive to the developments around the ceasefire.
“With the end of the ceasefire period, uncertainty has increased regarding the next phase of negotiations and the outlook for further diplomatic engagement. Market participants remain focused on whether the ceasefire will be extended or tensions will resurface, which could significantly impact near-term sentiment.”
Gold Faces Pressure Amid Mixed Signals
Manav Modi, Commodity Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said gold prices are under pressure as traders consider conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran.
“Gold prices fell as uncertainty regarding the US-Iran ceasefire and upcoming macro events kept sentiment cautious.”
He added: “Markets remain nervous about whether new peace talks will take place before the ceasefire ends this week, with conflicting signals from both sides increasing volatility.”
Technical Outlook: Stylish in Consolidation Phase
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, pointed out the ongoing indecision in the market.
“The benchmark indices witnessed a volatile trading session. Nifty rose 11 points and Sensex rose 27 points following volatile activity.”
He drew attention to sectoral trends:
- Buying seen in PSU banks, energy and media stocks
- Capital markets index decreased by 1.19%
“A small candle has formed on the daily chart, indicating confusion between bulls and bears.”
“Benchmark indices witnessed a choppy trading session. Following choppy activity, Nifty rose 11 points and Sensex rose 27 points. Among sectors, buying was seen in major PSU banks, energy and media stocks, while the capital markets index fell the most, down 1.19%. Technically, after the intraday rally, the market witnessed some profit booking at higher levels. A small candle has formed on the daily chart, indicating confusion between bulls and bears,” Chouhan said.
Key Levels to Watch for Nifty 50
Chouhan noted that Nifty 50 is currently trading near the 24,300-24,400 region and is continuing its consolidation phase after the recent recovery. The index remains above key support levels, implying fundamental strength, but upside momentum remains limited in the 24,450-24,500 range, which continues to act as a strong resistance zone.
“From a technical perspective, a sustainable break above 24,500 will be crucial to extend the rise towards 24,800-25,000 levels. On the downside, 24,300-24,250 (previous lows) acts as immediate support, followed by the 24,100-24,000 zone, which remains an important psychological and demand area,” he said.
Input from agencies
