Venezuela has limited options to respond to US seizure of sanctioned oil tanker
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The Trump administration’s latest offensive move against Venezuela seizure of tanker The US-sanctioned oil haul has triggered predictable anger from the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
But behind the rhetorical fire, analysts say, there are few practical ways the regime can retaliate without further harming itself.
Experts say Maduro could target U.S. oil interests in Venezuela, but doing so would almost certainly cause more pain to his cash-strapped regime than to the United States.
Maduro can also stop US-chartered deportation flights But experts say this will still harm their interests.
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“Venezuelans are just leaving the country because of the terrible conditions the regime has created,” said Connor Pfeiffer, a Western Hemisphere analyst with FDD Action. “Getting people to come back, even if they are on U.S. charter deportation flights, kind of debunks that narrative.”
Experts say Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could also stop US deportation flights, but this would harm his own interests. (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)
Western oil companies have significantly reduced their presence in Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, in recent years due to sanctions.
But U.S.-owned Chevron still has a license to operate there, provided the Maduro regime does not benefit financially from its operations. According to multiple reports, Chevron instead turned over half of its oil production to Maduro as payment.
“Chevron’s operations in Venezuela continue in full compliance with the laws and regulations applicable to its business, as well as the sanctions frameworks provided by the U.S. government,” a Chevron spokesperson told Fox News Digital.
Imports of Venezuelan crude have fallen from roughly 130,000 barrels per day to 150,000 barrels per day in recent months; This is down from around 300,000 barrels imported under the previous oil licensing regime under the Biden administration. According to data from Kpler, most of Venezuela’s exports are now directed to Asia, with bulk exports going to China through intermediaries.
Despite this influx of crude oil, analysts say the idea of Caracas retaliating against Chevron is stronger as a point of contention than as a viable policy option.
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Closing or seizing the company’s operations would immediately cut off one of the few lifelines feeding Venezuela’s collapsing oil sector. This could also risk triggering a swift and politically difficult American response, including a full reintroduction of sanctions relief that the regime has been quietly relying on.
Newly released footage shows US forces securing an oil tanker in Venezuela. (via @AGPamBondi)
Pfeiffer noted that Maduro’s government is “very supportive of Chevron continuing its operations” because the deal provides tens of thousands of barrels of oil per day with minimal investment from Venezuelan-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, SA. Other analysts say reality has sharply limited Maduro’s room for maneuver and that any attack on Chevron would primarily hit his own revenue stream.
Another theoretical tool—military or naval escalation—is widely viewed as even less credible. Venezuela has received small Iranian-made fast attack ships equipped with anti-ship missiles; This fueled speculation that Maduro could threaten U.S. or allied shipping.
But Venezuela’s navy has suffered from years of maintenance failures and lacks the ability to sustain operations against American forces stationed in the Caribbean. Any aggressive action at sea would almost certainly invite a US military intervention that the regime could not afford.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at the National Assembly meeting in Caracas on August 22, 2025. (Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images)
Diplomatically, Caracas could suspend its remaining channels with Washington or file legal challenges in US courts or international forums. But previous efforts to counter sanctions-related seizures have gone nowhere, and Venezuela’s relations in the hemisphere are of limited impact.
Regional institutions have little influence over US sanctions legislation, and even supportive governments in Russia, China or Iran are unlikely to intervene beyond making critical statements. Currently the primary destination for Venezuelan crude, Beijing’s economic interests are at stake, but there are few practical ways to challenge U.S. sanctions actions.
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According to Pfeiffer, in the absence of direct military strikes, crackdowns on sanctioned oil exports are one of the most effective ways for the United States to weaken the regime.
“This is one of the main sources of income that keeps the regime afloat,” he said.
