Virginia’s victory good for Democrats but also shows Trump’s redistricting battle could be all for nothing | US midterm elections 2026
Months into his second term, Donald Trump is betting that the party can overcome its historic trend of losing seats in power in midterm elections if Republican-led states redraw congressional maps to oust Democrats.
The gambit appears to be a bust, or at best a draw, for the president after Democrats responded with their own redistricting effort; The latest of those efforts came to fruition Tuesday, when voters in Virginia approved a plan that could unseat all but one of five Republicans in the current House delegation.
Far from defying history, Trump now appears ready to bow to it, as Democrats’ counterattack, combined with voters’ dissatisfaction with the president’s own policies, sets the stage for Republicans to suffer potentially brutal losses in November’s midterm elections.
“Democrats didn’t back down. We fought back. When they were weakened, we hit back hard,” said Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, and vowed “maximum war everywhere, anytime.”
The redistricting battle began last year when red states Texas, Missouri and North Carolina responded to Trump’s call by redrawing their maps in a way that would make seven Democratic-held seats unwinnable for that party. But in the months that followed, the plan went awry; Indiana Senate Republicans refused to join a gerrymandering campaign, a bipartisan commission in Ohio introduced new maps that put Democratic incumbents in less danger than expected, and a court ruling improved the minority’s chances of winning a seat in Utah.
The biggest setback came in November, when California voters approved maps that could have cost Republicans five seats in the House; That was the same number Texas Republicans hoped to win with redistricting. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger was elected governor on Tuesday, holding a voter-approved redistricting referendum.
The margin of victory was a small three percentage points; That was far less than the 15 percent increase when Spanberger was elected four months ago, but regardless, when the new Congress begins next year, Virginia’s congressional delegation is poised to consist of 10 Democrats and one Republican, compared to its current split of six Democrats and five Republicans.
“This goes beyond Virginia, and what started in Texas doesn’t stay in Texas, and what starts here doesn’t stay here,” said L Louise Lucas, the state Senate president pro tempore who played a key role in approving the maps. “Virginia sent a message: If you try to rig the system, we will fight back. If you try to take away the power of voters, we will take it right back.”
The national redistricting push may fail or even turn to the Democrats’ advantage. This is not the only way political trends can change in the party’s favor; Their candidates continue to emerge victorious in special elections, and even if they lose, there are signs that Trump-supporting demographics are shifting toward Democrats in 2024.
While Trump’s approval ratings remain low, including on important issues like the economy, Democrats are ahead in the public vote, which serves as an indicator of pre-midterm sentiment.
Virginia’s supreme court is still considering a legal challenge to the referendum and could potentially issue a ruling invalidating the vote. Democrats would still have a chance to win perhaps two swing districts in the state even if previous maps drawn under a process voters approved six years ago to prevent partisan gerrymandering were introduced in November.
And there are still tit-for-tat redistricting conflicts to resolve. Next week, Florida’s legislature will meet for a special session, called by Republican governor Ron DeSantis, to consider congressional map changes that could make it harder for Democrats to hold on to as many as three seats.
But with the winds seemingly blowing in his party’s direction, Jeffries offered a warning to Republicans in Florida at a news conference Wednesday: “Go out there and find out.” He predicted that Texas Republicans could claim up to three Democratic-held seats under their new map, and that redistricting Florida could completely backfire by making GOP incumbents vulnerable.
“If they go the way of a DeSantis fool, Florida Republicans will find themselves in the same situation as Texas Republicans who are now on the run,” he said.
“But go ahead and make our day.”
