USA

Vulnerable Republicans embrace risky strategy of embracing an unpopular Trump

Republicans in swing districts of the House of Representatives are welcoming President Trump to their districts and embracing him as the leader of the party despite his underwater endorsement.

It’s a rather surprising move for vulnerable lawmakers who were expected to distance themselves from the president for fear of alienating undecided voters.

According to polls, Trump is unpopular; Real Clear Politics has an approval rating of just 40 percent in the polling average.

But National Republican strategists see the president’s popularity with the GOP base as a way to boost turnout and defy historic midterm trends predicting losses for the president’s party. Republicans can only afford a handful of losses and retain their slim majority.

Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.), a first-term congressman who is flipping his seat in 2024, told The Hill: “We want to have the broadest electorate possible. We showed that we were successful in Pennsylvania in 2024 when everyone came out to vote in the presidential election.”

“I flipped a seat. Dave McCormick flipped a Senate seat. President Trump won. We want a big voter turnout, and so in an election like this, we know from past elections that President Trump has increased Republican turnout, and so we want to see everyone come out to vote,” Mackenzie said.

At a rally in the Mackenzie district in June, Trump addressed several other Republican congressmen representing safe seats.

“I’m not here for them. I’m here for her,” Trump said, referring to Mackenzie, and then invited her to “run” onto the stage for sound bites and jokes no one wants to hear from him — only Trump.

Trump also kicked off the 2026 midterm cycle with a January rally in Iowa that included opening messages from Iowa GOP Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who both represent upset districts. Nunn’s campaign post a video Part of his rally comments include footage of him and Trump greeting Iowans at a restaurant.

Rocking chair Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) Trump said this “He has a strong hand on the wheel that puts America first” at the Turning Point event hosted by the United States in April, where the president also spoke.

Trump’s embrace doesn’t end with the House members sitting down.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the campaign arm of the House GOP. renamed the program It aimed to identify promising Republican challengers against House Democrats, from the “Young Guns” initiative to the “MAGA Majority” slate.

“President Trump is the biggest driver of Republican enthusiasm and turnout, and his agenda is to deliver results that voters can see in their own communities,” said NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella.

“Our candidates are willing to campaign with him in every corner and every competitive district across the country because there is no stronger difference in the midterm elections than the results record of President Trump and the Republicans and the radical socialist agenda of the Democrats.”

The strategy is a somewhat risky shift compared to how Republicans in tough districts have previously handled their relationships with the president.

When Trump is not on the ballot, his supporters’ turnout tends to drop. Low-propensity voters who sided with Trump in the presidential election are also less likely to participate in the midterm elections.

The conventional wisdom, and the real risk for Republicans, is that tying Republicans in purple districts to an unpopular president will do more to motivate their opponents to vote against Republicans than to increase GOP turnout.

“On every issue, Americans see congressional Republicans choosing loyalty to Trump over the interests of working families — price hikes, Trump’s war of choice, taking away people’s health care and handing out tax breaks to the ultra-rich,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. he said.

“When those same defenseless Republicans gleefully campaign by saying Trump ‘loves inflation’ and yelling about ballrooms, it’s a signal to every voter that Republicans don’t work for you, they only work for Trump.”

But Trump has long argued that Republicans would be better off embracing him rather than pushing him away.

After massive losses for Republicans in the 2018 “blue wave” elections, Trump named several undecided House members who won after Trump took on their districts, such as Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) — and He fooled the Republicans losers after walking away from it.

“On the other hand, there were those who said, ‘Let’s stay away, let’s stay away.'” “They did very poorly,” Trump said the day after the 2018 midterms. He said former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) “could win this race, but she didn’t want to embrace it,” and listed several others who had fallen to the same fate.

It’s not just Trump’s ego driving the GOP calculation. Republican operatives see the 2026 midterm battleground map as very different from the one in 2018 and much more challenging for Democrats.

“For Democrats to flip the House, they need to win Republican-held seats where President Trump averaged 53.2% of the vote in 2024, a much tougher battleground than when Democrats flipped seats in the 2018 midterms when Trump averaged 46.6% of the vote in 2016.” NRCC battlefield memo in question.

The strategy is also linked to Trump’s dominance of his party; this was also highlighted in a number of preliminary challenges this year.

Trump unseated Indiana state senators who defied his desire to redistrict to favor Republicans and defeated incumbents who clashed with him, such as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.).

The president’s early and frequent endorsements also helped prevent his favored Republicans from facing competitive primary challenges and cleared the field in open races; It’s a welcome dynamic for national Republican strategists who are happy to save campaign money and resources for the general election.

A few Republicans in the House, such as Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), have shown that independence from Trump could lead to electoral success.

“We each represent our own communities in this country and we have our own relationships with our voters and you know our own track record, our own voting history, and that’s essentially what’s on the ballot. It’s nothing more,” Fitzpatrick said in June. he said, noting that he was one of the few Republicans whose seats were dispersed in 2018.

Trump recently complained that Fitzpatrick “always votes against me,” warning that “things aren’t going well.” This year, his district was rated “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report.

And some Republicans who welcomed Trump into their districts are treading a cautious line.

Trump held a rally in Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Y) district in May. During the rally, Lawler, who held up the seat, noted Trump’s 2024 electoral strength in Rockland County and thanked the president for his support of eliminating the cap on state and local tax deductions in the GOP’s signature tax bill last year.

When asked in June about campaigning with Trump as a vulnerable Republican, Lawler did not embrace the president.

“He’s the president of the United States. Most of my voters support him, others don’t. After all, you have to be able to communicate with presidents and get along with them. Why, when Joe Biden was president and he came to my district, I showed up. Donald Trump’s president came to my district, so I came. You have to be able to work with the president,” Lawler told The Hill.

Head to The Hill for the latest news, weather, sports and streaming video.