Wall Street report claims the waterway is operating as a tollway
Wall Street’s Gonzo research firm Citrini claimed to have made a significant discovery when it sent an analyst to see first-hand what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow body of water that decides the future of the global economy.
Last week, a Citrini employee called Analyst No. 3, armed with cigars, thousands of dollars in cash and tin cans of nicotine pouches, boarded a speedboat in the strait and reported that the waterway was not closed to the extent some experts thought.
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But one thing is clear: Iran effectively operates a toll road that allows preferred ships to pass through the strait.
“If you don’t get approval, you can’t pass,” Citrini’s report said. “This is the difference between a blockade and a toll road, and while the market is pricing in the former, the reality on the water is poised to look more like the latter.”
Eyewitness details of the state of the strait stand in stark contrast to the notoriety Citrini achieved in February when he triggered a global stock market crash with a dystopian report imagining what artificial intelligence could do to the world economy by 2028.
The analyst, who visited the strait on an old motorboat last week, saw with his own eyes what he claimed satellite and ship tracking data failed to detect – the increasing volume of ships traveling through the strait – a reference to the ‘dark’ ships’ tracking devices being turned off.
“I saw a Greek Dynacom ship rushing right through the middle of the strait; it doesn’t hug the edges like other captains, it doesn’t crawl along the shore, it attacks from the middle as if it were peacetime,” he said.
“If you want one image that confirms the thesis that the strait has reopened under Iranian rule, it is a Greek tanker passing at full speed through the center of Hormuz, with drones flying overhead and everyone else hiding on the edges.”
Including international news sources Finance Times Reuters and Reuters confirmed that Dynacom Tankers, the shipping company owned by 79-year-old Greek billionaire George Prokopiou, has sent several ships through the strait since the conflict began.
Citrini also observed Chinese ships and ships flagged by India, Malaysia, Japan, Greece, France, Oman and Türkiye.
A total of 14 ships passed through on April 2, compared with a maximum of four ships a day during the previous two weeks, according to local observers interviewed by the Citrini analyst.
Citrini, which was founded in 2023 to analyze major economic trends, claims its analyst was caught by the Oman Coast Guard, detained and his phone seized before he was later released.
“It is our belief that narratives drive markets more than any other factor,” said the firm, founded by former doctor James van Geelen.
The bad news is that current volumes are nowhere near the levels needed to avert global economic disaster in the long term.
In the conclusions of his report, Citrini noted that the shipments he witnessed paled in comparison to the more than 100 ships that normally pass each day, let alone the volume of cargo allowed by giant oil tankers, which is still a rare occurrence.
“If only 15 ships pass through the strait a day by the end of April, the situation will be catastrophic. Everyone concerned knows this,” Citrini said.
However, one of the most important findings of the report is that no one thinks that Iran wants the strait closed.
“The best propaganda for Iran is a working strait, where the United States appears to be the disruptive force, while they appear to be reasonable servants of global commerce.”
This may be the reason why other countries found solutions despite the impact of the hot war.
“The most counterintuitive finding from this trip is that hot war and commercial diplomacy occur simultaneously. While the United States continues its military action, the rest of the world is adapting and negotiating a transition,” he said in the statement.
Citrini reported on the mood on the ground, including among Iranian smugglers who crossed the strait of their own accord: “There was human resilience in the face of great uncertainty and global attention. There has been war here before, there will be war again. The United States is interested in oil, as always. Neighbors are fighting, the risk is real, but life goes on. This too will pass.”
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Colin Kruger is senior business correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age newspapers.Connect via email.
