War in Gaza caused big political shifts, and more are likely on the road to peace | Middle East peace talks

If the war in Gaza had dramatic consequences in the Middle East, upending long-held assumptions, resetting the geopolitical map and causing major shifts in public opinion, a lasting peace is likely to have equally significant effects.

Some advise caution.

“Less than ten days have passed and we are seeing multiple violations of the ceasefire by Israel and Hamas. I think it will take some time to move in a positive direction after so much bloodshed and destruction,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza who is now in Cairo.

But the way the war ended has already had a significant impact on regional politics.

Trump’s efforts to counter his ill-received “Riviera” plan for Gaza earlier this year brought regional powers together in a new way. This has now moved up a gear. The rapid implementation of Trump’s new 20-point plan, after years of rivalry in the Middle East, is forcing the rivals to put aside their differences and cooperate very closely under serious pressure.

Agreeing on the first phase of the plan depended on US pressure on Israel as well as Qatar and Türkiye leaning on Hamas.

Qatar is now in Trump’s good books; But so is Türkiye’s senior leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was praised by the US president at a hastily organized summit in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El Sheikh last week. “a tough cookie” but also a “friend”. This was not the view of the always volatile US president, nor was it shared by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the Egyptian ruler who supposedly hosted the summit.

However, there was a change here too. Türkiye, Egypt and possibly Jordan are seen as the most likely candidates to offer their troops for the new international stabilization force for Gaza. This presents opportunities for both countries, but also presents multiple risks. They will try to minimize friction, at least in the short term.

Keen observers noted other details at the summit that hinted at larger potential changes.

Among the leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh was Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shiite al-Sudani, who faces an uphill battle to win a second term in elections due in less than a month. He posed for a thumbs up picture with Trump and described Tony Blair, the US president’s pick for a leadership role of the “Peace Council”, a body of Palestinian technocrats, that is slated to be set up to run Gaza under the 20-point plan, as “great friend” of Iraq”. This may raise some suspicions in the region and further afield.

Michael Knights, head of research and long-term Iraq analyst at global consultancy Horizon Engage, said Iraq was part of Iran’s sphere of influence after the 2003 war, but that may now begin to change.

“You’re now seeing Iraq being pulled into the Arab orbit, and that’s a big change,” Knights said, adding that he understood Baghdad was even considering sending troops to the planned international stabilization force in Gaza.

Such a move could anger Tehran, but the ceasefire leaves Iran’s leadership facing a bleak situation after 24 months of conflict. Iran’s brief war with Israel brutally exposed its own military shortcomings. Its very costly nuclear program has undoubtedly suffered, although we do not know how much. European, UK and US sanctions were reimposed.

In addition, the ceasefire seals the end of the coalition of militant groups with varying capabilities, autonomy and determination that was the centerpiece of Tehran’s “forward defense” strategy. Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self in Lebanon and faces an uncertain future, including possible disarmament. The friendly Assad regime in Syria no longer exists. Hamas has just stopped fighting and may have to give up any weapons that could threaten Israel.

“The ceasefire could act as an engine of integration within the region. Alongside all the talk about major land links from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, it would also restart a broader discussion on the Middle East.” [diplomatic and economic] normalization of Israel,” Knights said.

Every leader in the region now recognizes the public anger over the war in Gaza, which has been devastated by an Israeli offensive that has killed 67,000 people. But the ceasefire means that a conversation about expanding the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements agreed by four Arab states five years ago, is now theoretically possible; but the question of a future Palestinian state is of great importance here.

“Trump said the agreement he brokered extends well beyond Gaza, and he was talking about normalization with Israel, possibly Saudi Arabia, and possibly Indonesia, and maybe others. That will happen sometime,” Abusada said.