What the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal tells us about the future of tariffs
On June 21, 2025, Thai last last SP Co. Workers at the Clothing Factory are trying to produce products for global customers in Thu Duc, Ho Chi Minh and Vietnam.
Daniel Ceng | Anatolia | Getty Images
US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Hanoi only days before Washington’s mutual tariffs returned to Vietnam on Thursday, after he announced a trade agreement with Hanoi.
In accordance with the agreement, the US will apply 20% task to Vietnam imports – under the sharp 46% of Trump’s 46% implemented in early April. The US imports to Vietnam will not be subject to tariffs.
Trump also said that Vietnam initially accepted a 40% task for any product from another country, but was sent to Vietnam for the last shipment to the United States. reported He had repeatedly relied on this application, known as Transhipping to avoid trade barriers.
Vietnam is one of the few countries that make a trade agreement with the White House, and the clock points to the temporary reconstruction of Trump for 90 days. Many countries wondered how the future of trade relations with the world’s largest economy can be shaped.
“What we have learned from the Vietnam agreement, tariffs, not from here, will go down,” said Sebastian Raedler, President of the European Stock Strategy in Bofa.
However, Capital Economics Chief Asian economist Mark Williams told CNBC that other countries could have an easier time to negotiate.
“Other countries will feel that President Trump should be able to lock a tariff ratio less than 20% what Vietnam said,” he said.
More developing market agreements?
The agreement may be concerned for other developing market economies, such as Vietnam, economists and strategists in Citi in a note on Thursday.
“In balance, we believe that if Em Asia reflects what will happen soon to concern, it is more than waiting for earnings.”
According to CITI experts, the development of development eliminates uncertainty and suggests that other agreements may occur in the coming days, but 20% tariff rate is higher than the expected 10% tax. They add that 40% of the transferred goods show that other countries may also need to accept such a task.
Note, “Malaysia may be exposed to more exposure than other EM Asian peers (except Vietnam) after Thailand. A separate and more punishing tariff for transferred goods is at least expectation by the market.” He said.
“In addition, there may be spread to other exporters who have established factories in Vietnam in recent years.”
However, experts speaking with the CNBC speech, waiting for a few more trade agreements in the coming days, Williams said that the United States seems to be open to making these “rough” frames instead of “full” agreements.
Asian senior economist Trinh Nguyen, who emerged in Natixis CIB, made an agreement. The agricultural sector may emerge as an obstacle, because India said, “It will find it difficult to allow market access without local reaction.”
What can the agreement mean to Europe
Although the Vietnam-US agreement argues that more agreements are the leading for other Asian countries, it does not mean that the same is valid for the European Union, OCBC Bank Senior ASEAN economist Lavanya Venkateswaran, said CNBC.
“The Vietnamese officials were clear about their intention to negotiate with the US even before mutual announcements were made in April.” He said.
“Compared to these economies, [the] The EU was not always a smooth sail, and the USA was more public in its criticism of the EU in the last few months. ”
“Vietnam shows that it is very difficult for Europe to receive what it wants-which does not contain this tariff”.
Some tasks are likely to be implemented, and although the EU is able to retaliate by applying equal tariffs to the USA, Nguyen is waiting for the EU to accept 10% tariffs and “try to win on the sectoral side”.
Commercial negotiations between the EU and the United States, CNBC, inadequate details and naked bones that say that a “political” agreement can be the best hope at this point. Considering the major points such as analysts and economists, large technology regulation, taxation and extensive world views, such as extensive world views, they expressed uncertainty about the possibility of a trade agreement.
While Trump called for 50% high tariffs in the EU, the block threatened extensive measures that were paused until next week.
