Ethereum price entered March after a brutal February that resulted in losses of close to 20%. ETH has recorded six consecutive red months from September 2025; This is an unprecedented streak in the history of the token. If March ends in the red, it will extend to seven months, further strengthening as the longest decline Ethereum has ever seen.
While March has historically carried an average return of around 9% for ETH, the current situation suggests that history can offer little guidance. Here’s what the data shows.
Even February 2025, which saw a 32% decline, saw an immediate attempt at recovery over the next few months. This time the sales continue uninterrupted and the weekly chart explains why. Seeing red for six months except March (newly formed) is not a downside success at all.
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Price History: CryptoRank
Since April 7, 2025, Ethereum price has been trading in a head-and-shoulders pattern. It is a bearish reversal structure in which a central vertex (head) is flanked by two lower vertices (shoulders). The fault was confirmed in early January 2026, and this was no small dip. This was a structural break.
The measured move from this model projects a decline of approximately 53% from the breakout line, targeting around $1,320. Although this level has not yet been reached, the pattern remains active and unresolved.
ETH Distribution: TradingView
To make matters worse, two additional downtrends are forming in the weekly Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), smoothing the price data to highlight the trend direction.
The 50-period EMA is approaching the 100-period EMA and the 20-period EMA is approaching the 200-period EMA. The last confirmed crossover (when the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA in early January) preceded a 46% correction.
Weekly Breakdown Structure: TradingView
If these new crossovers are confirmed, they will strengthen the bearish trend on the higher time frame.
Unlike Bitcoin, where spot ETF outflows are steadily decreasing, Ethereum’s ETF chart is deteriorating. A net outflow of $369.87 million was recorded in February; This is up from $353.20 million in January. This reversed a briefly promising recovery trend, with outflows in January decreasing compared to December’s $616.82 million.
This marks four consecutive months of outflows since November 2025, when $1.42 billion broke out. The last month of positive inflows was in October 2025 at $569.92 million.
ETF Flows: SoSo Value
For the Ethereum price, this means that an institutional demand base did not form heading into March. The capital that once supported ETH through ETF channels is being withdrawn, and unlike Bitcoin, the bleeding is not slowing down.
Against this downward trend, an on-chain metric stands out. Ethereum hodlers, wallets that hold ETH for 155 days or longer, have sharply increased their purchases. On February 21, the hodler net position change metric was a modest +6,829 ETH. As of March 1, it rose to +252,142 ETH; This seems like a strong belief at first glance, with a whopping 3,500% increase.
ETH Hodlers Have Been Buying Lately: Glassnode
But context complicates this signal. The last major hodler buying spell started on December 26, 2025, when the Ethereum price was around $2,920. It continued to accumulate as the price rose to $3,350 by January 14. Then the weekly EMA crossover was triggered and the price started to fall sharply. Hodlers continued to buy despite the decline. Their net position only turned negative on February 2, when the price fell to $2,340.
ETH Hodlers Are Most Likely Trapped: Glassnode
So most of these hodlers are probably stuck between $2,340 and $3,350. The current buying wave may not represent a new bullish belief, but rather an attempt to lower the average and reach breakeven. Retail investors should be careful about blindly following this signal; The motivation behind the purchase may be survival, not strategy.
If hodlers are trapped, why are they increasing their risk in a weak market? The 12-hour chart can answer this.
Between February 12 and February 28, the Ethereum price recorded a lower decline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, recorded a higher decline. This creates a bullish divergence, which is a signal that the selling momentum is weakening even as the price is falling. This divergence has already triggered a bounce, with the Ethereum price rising nearly 11.7% from its lows.
More importantly, this rise is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart; an upward reversal structure. That’s probably what the Hodders are taking a position on; A short-term breakout that could help them recoup losses from the January trap. The technical setup is real and the RSI divergence has already been confirmed by the initial bounce.
Ethereum Short Term Structure: TradingView
The neckline is around $2,160 to $2,180. If Ethereum price closes above this level, the measured move projects an upside of around 19%, targeting around $2,590. Prior to this, the Fibonacci extension levels at $2,050 and $2,400 would serve as intermediate resistance zones.
On the downside, a decline below $1,830 weakens the upside head and shoulders. A close below $1,790 completely invalidates the bounce thesis and reasserts weekly head-and-shoulders dominance and puts the $1,320 target back into focus.
Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView
The most likely path for March reflects Bitcoin’s structure: an attempted bounce driven by the 12-hour structure and hodler accumulation, followed by renewed pressure as the weekly trend remains firmly bearish.
The bounce is real, but it is struggling with a much bigger collapse.
