World food system could collapse without urgent action, experts warn

The world’s food system is cracking under the weight of biodiversity loss, climate shocks and increasing geopolitical conflicts, experts have warned.

These chronic pressures on the complex global network pose a significant threat to the survival of the world economy, society and even humanity, according to a new report led by Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).

The researchers emphasized that problems such as soil degradation and water scarcity have already led to reduced crop yields, increased prices and reduced availability in recent years.

This precarious situation is now exacerbated by geopolitical instability, with the US-Israeli war against Iran cited as another example of the fragility of food security, as supply chain disruptions continue to increase costs.

Farmers in the UK are facing billions of dollars in losses due to drought and floods, while households are grappling with rising food price inflation.

Citing other studies, the report suggests civil unrest in the UK resulting from the food system crisis could become a reality within the next 10 to 50 years.

Beyond this, the report found that long-term food security is also threatened as important ecosystems approach irreversible tipping points.

Large-scale deforestation, particularly in the Amazon rainforest, is increasingly disrupting the rainfall and carbon cycles necessary for stable crop yields.

The decline in pollinators, which account for nearly three-quarters of global crop production, will continue to impact food production.

Overfishing, pollution and climate change are pushing marine ecosystems beyond critical thresholds, which can lead to a collapse in fish populations.

It comes after a recent Government report by intelligence officials found biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse to be a realistic possibility that could trigger a global competition for food, mass migration to the UK and nuclear war in Asia.

Lead author and director of the Global Sustainability Institute at ARU, Aled Jones, said: “Our current economy is set up to deliver efficiency, profit and therefore a just-in-time system that both drives this threat and provides little or no resistance to it.

“We need radical new policies and guidance to overcome these emerging risks,” he added.

He argues that actuaries, who analyze the risk of future events and their financial consequences, want to contribute their unique expertise to shape the crisis response.

Currently, financial risks related to food systems, zoonotic diseases moving from animals to humans, health crises related to heat or pollution and even cyber attacks on retailers are “not being managed well,” he said.

Hugh Montgomery, head of critical care medicine at University College London, said “unless we take absolutely radical action now, the world is certain to experience these effects”.

But on the health risks, Mr Montgomery said: “The health effects aren’t really things that worry me.

“I’m worried about human survival right now, and when I talk about human survival I don’t mean future generations,” he added.

He also argued that humanity was currently causing a “mass extinction event” and that the impact on society and economy would be “utterly catastrophic”, leading to mass migration, conflict and the collapse of nature.

Researchers say governments, regulators and the financial sector need to take urgent action to integrate nature into decision-making processes to protect the world’s food systems.

This includes investing in measures for sustainable land use, protecting pollinators and strengthening supply chain resilience; The report argues that prevention will be cheaper than crisis response to acute shocks.

Policymakers and regulators need to recognize nature as the critical foundation of society and economy, using integrated climate-nature scenarios to understand the link between biodiversity and climate, the report said.

Meanwhile, actuaries and the financial industry must recognize food system fragility as a systemic financial risk, with impacts far greater than agriculture’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP).

Sandy Trust, the report’s lead author, said events in the Gulf region “pose a far greater risk to global food security than the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

“We must incorporate biodiversity and climate change into financial decision-making to align our financial portfolios with the planet’s boundaries.”

A Government spokesman said: “The UK has a resilient food system. Our land use framework provides long-term clarity to strengthen our high levels of food security and national resilience to extreme weather.”

“This Government is also investing billions of dollars in the development of new technologies to increase yields and develop climate-resilient crops as part of our commitment to maintaining food production levels and helping farmers produce more food.

“In addition, by building new reservoirs for the first time in 30 years, we increase our water supply and ensure that our food and water security is protected in the future.”