No peace prize for Trump. Will fragile Gaza deal hold?

Following Trump’s peace plan, a ceasefire began in Gaza. There’s reason to celebrate, but there are still many questions about what happens next. Marika Sosnowski on ‘smothering contracts’ with the devil.

There are jubilant scenes in both Gaza and Israel after both sides of the war agreed to a new ceasefire. If all goes well, this will be the third ceasefire that Israel and Hamas will implement, although there are numerous other agreements aimed at stopping the violence.

There’s a lot to be happy about here. Most importantly, this ceasefire will put an end to what is currently established. genocidal campaign An end to violence against Palestinians in Gaza, the release of all hostages held by Hamas, and the resumption of aid to Gaza to relieve the oppression experienced by Palestinians. famine conditions there.

But there are still many unknowns. Although the terms of the “first phase” of this ceasefire were rehearsed in previous ceasefires in November 2023 and January 2025, many other terms remain unclear. This makes their implementation difficult and possibly controversial.

Gaza ceasefire offers hope of easing tensions within the country

What’s next?

Once this phase is completed, much will depend on Israel’s domestic politics and the Trump administration’s willingness to fulfill its guarantor responsibilities.

The ceasefire agreement appears to be based on: 20 point plan US President Donald Trump inaugurated it at the White House on September 29, together with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

What will be implemented in the process called the “first phase” are the practical, more detailed and urgent conditions of the ceasefire.

inside peace plan text It has been disclosed to the public and these conditions are stated in the following provisions:

• Point 3: Ending the war “immediately” and withdrawing Israeli troops “to an agreed line.”
• Articles 4 and 5 – Release by Hamas of all hostages, living and dead, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
• Point 7: Full aid flow to the strip in accordance with the terms of the January ceasefire agreement.

While these steps are positive, they are the bare minimum you would expect both sides to agree to as part of a ceasefire agreement.

Gaza was destroyed

For the last two years, Gaza has been almost ruined By the Israeli army and the population of the strip starve to death. Also great domestic pressure While it tasked the Israeli government with bringing the hostages home, Hamas had no cards left to play but to release the hostages.

The wording of these specific terms was designed to mean that both Israel and Hamas knew what to do and when. This increases the likelihood of complying with the terms.

Both parties have an interest in realizing these conditions. Moreover, both sides had previously taken exactly these steps in the Gaza ceasefires in November 2023 and January 2025.

In this regard, I predict that these conditions will be implemented in the coming days. What happens next is less clear.

strangling contracts

Once the first phase of the ceasefire is implemented, Hamas will find itself in a situation very similar to the ceasefire agreements made during the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 and only recently ended with the ouster of the Assad regime in late 2024. strangle contracts.

Such ceasefire agreements are not like bargains or contracts negotiated between two equal parties. Instead, these are pretty compelling deals.

Enabling the stronger party to force the weaker party to accept anything in order to survive.

Once the hostages are released, Hamas will again have negligible bargaining power. And the group, along with the people of Gaza, will once again be at the mercy of Israeli military might and domestic and foreign politics.

Other terms Trump’s peace plan Issues regarding the disarmament of Hamas (Articles 1 and 13), the future governance of Gaza (Articles 9 and 13), and the redevelopment of Gaza (Articles 2, 10, and 11) are also extremely vague and provide little guidance on exactly what should happen, when, and how.

Under such a stifling contract, Hamas will have no influence after releasing the hostages. This, along with the vague terms of the ceasefire agreement, will provide Israel with great maneuverability and political protection.

For example, the Israeli government could claim that Hamas is not abiding by the terms of the agreement and then restart bombardment, reduce aid, or further displace Palestinians in Gaza.

Although Article 12 rightly provides that “no one shall be forced to leave Gaza,” Israel could make conditions there so unfavorable and offer Gazans sufficient incentives; They may have little choice but to leave if they want to survive.

Articles 15 and 16 require the United States (along with its Arab and other international partners) to develop an interim International Stabilization Force to be deployed to Gaza to act as a guarantor of the agreement. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will also withdraw “according to standards, milestones and time frames associated with demilitarization.”

But these “standards, milestones and time frames” were left unspecified and will be difficult for the parties to agree on.

It is also possible that Israel will use the ambiguity of these terms to its advantage, arguing that Hamas has not met certain conditions to justify restarting the war.

Ceasefire in Gaza shows that two-state solution will not be helped

US warranties

Knowing that it had no influence left after the first stage, Hamas he said clearly It expects the USA to fulfill its guarantor role. This is certainly a good sign that the US has He promised 200 soldiers It wants to help support and monitor the ceasefire, but at this stage Hamas has no choice but to pray that the United States’ actions reflect its own words.

Although the ceasefire has now been accepted by a majority of the Knesset (Israeli parliament), five far-right ministers voted against the agreement. These include Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

truce similar to this “Deal with Adolf Hitler”

This opposition bloc will undoubtedly make further threats and potentially take action to overthrow the Netanyahu government after the implementation of the first phase.

ceasefire issue

The first phase of this ceasefire will offer key elements to Hamas and Israel: hostage-prisoner exchanges, a cessation of violence, and humanitarian aid.

From now on, instead of a bargaining process with exchanges between negotiating partners operating on a relatively level playing field, without objection from the United States,

The ceasefire could easily turn into an excuse to further increase Israeli control over Gaza.

A ceasefire was always going to be a very small step forward on the long road to peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Without meaningful participation We can only hope that the future of Gazans will not get worse if Palestinians achieve self-determination.

As a Palestinian leader from Yarmouk camp in Syria told me in 2018:

People know that if there is a ceasefire, the devil will come.

This article is republished from: Speech It is under Creative Commons license. Read original article.

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