Americans get relief as Thanksgiving dinner costs decline nationwide

After several years of rising food prices, Americans can finally relax at the Thanksgiving table, mainly due to falling turkey prices.

The average cost of a traditional banquet for a holiday gathering fell this year, according to new data from Wells Fargo and the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF); The decline was led by turkey, dinner rolls and stuffing. While the cost of some sides is still eating into budgets, the overall cost of a traditional meal has decreased by about 3% to 6%.

Wells Fargo estimates that a dinner for 10 people costs between $80 and $95, depending on whether shoppers choose store or national brands. AFBF estimates the nationwide average cost is $55.18, or about $5.52 per person; down 5% from last year, but still about 13% higher than before the pandemic.

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The organization found that the cost of a standard meal is lowest in the South at $50.01, followed by $54.38 in the Midwest, $60.82 in the Northeast and $61.75 in the West.

Stephanie Carls, RetailMeNot’s Texas-based retail insight expert, told Fox News Digital that the relief was due to reduced supply chain pressures and strong competition among grocers.

“Discounting is bearing the brunt this year,” Carls added. “Many retailers are increasingly relying on private label products because it allows them to deliver stronger value without sacrificing margins.”

For shoppers, he said, this means more savings opportunities without sacrificing quality.

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“Retailers, including BJ’s Wholesale Club and HEB, know when budgets are tight, many are offering free turkey promotions and holiday meal packages to help families host without spending too much,” Carls said. “These competitive discounts are playing a big role in driving down average meal costs this season.”

Prices of staples like cranberries are falling this year, but some items are still expensive. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, Walmart, Lidl, Aldi and Target announced their most affordable Thanksgiving meals in years; They feed four to 10 people for about $3.60 to $5 per person, according to a White House news release.

Shoppers will likely notice national brand turkey prices dropping the most. AFBF found that the average price of a 16-pound frozen turkey dropped 16% from last year to $21.50.

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“This year’s decline is driven by supply, as demand remains about the same year over year,” Brandon Parsons, an economist at Pepperdine University Graziadio School of Business in California, told Fox News Digital. “Türkiye production has increased and the bird flu outbreak has decreased, allowing turkey supply to recover.”

This year, turkey accounts for a smaller share of the Thanksgiving meal cost than usual; At just 39% of the total dinner price, it’s the lowest in 25 years.

Türkiye prices fell 16% this Thanksgiving as production rebounded and the effects of bird flu eased. (Dominic Di Palermo/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Other Thanksgiving staples, including dinner rolls, also experienced price declines, dropping 22% to about $3.56 per dozen. Stuffing, gravy and cranberries are all down about 3% to 4% from last year, according to Wells Fargo.

But not everything is cheaper; This includes vegetable products and dairy products.

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“Turkey and wheat products are benefiting from improving production conditions leading to greater supply and reduced input costs, while other product categories are subject to supply shocks,” Parsons said.

Side dishes such as rolls and stuffed vegetables are also less costly this year, contributing to shoppers’ savings. (iStock)

Sweet potatoes are up 37% to $4 for a 3-pound bag, while fresh vegetable trays like carrots and celery are up 61% to $1.36 per pound, according to AFBF.

Hurricane damage in North Carolina, farm labor shortages and typical crop fluctuations contributed to higher prices, according to the same source.

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“Mississippi, one of the nation’s largest producers of sweet potatoes, went more than 70 days without rain this summer, resulting in smaller-than-average roots and lower yields per acre,” said Francisco Martin-Rayo, co-founder and CEO of Helios AI, which uses artificial intelligence to analyze agricultural and market data.

Despite the lower prices, many Americans are hosting smaller, simpler celebrations this Thanksgiving. (iStock)

“Rising inflation in side dishes continues to be a real pressure point for U.S. households,” Martin-Rayo said, noting that processors and packers will particularly feel the pressure.

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When it comes to drinks, beer prices are up around 3%, while wine prices are holding steady and soft drinks are showing mixed results; 12-ounce cans were down 3%, while 2-liter packages were up 7%.

Despite price drops, many Americans are cutting costs by hosting smaller gatherings, skipping extras and mixing home-cooked meals with store-bought meals, according to NIQ retail data.

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“Lower turkey prices reflect increased supply and competitive holiday promotions, but they do not necessarily mean food inflation is behind us,” Carls said. “Seasonal cuts can create temporary relief, so it’s important to look beyond a single item to understand the bigger inflation picture.”