Gold and silver futures under review
Justin Lin
Precious metals have returned to the spotlight of investors in Australia after an extraordinary rise in 2025. Gold and silver may have been in the spotlight last year, but they got there for very different reasons, and those differences will likely shape their paths through 2026.
Despite this, the year started with undoubted momentum. Gold rose to US$4760 ($7000) per ounce as of January 20, while silver rose more than 30 percent in just 12 trading days, reaching an all-time high of over US$94.
The key question for Australian investors is whether these metals can still play a role in the portfolio after such strong rallies. In our view, gold continues to stand out as one of the most interesting investment themes of 2026, supported by macroeconomic uncertainty and persistent geopolitical risks.
Silver, on the contrary, offers opportunity but demands a higher tolerance for volatility and will likely be a lot bumpier along the way.
Gold: strong fundamentals
Gold had a remarkable year in 2025. Its value increased by approximately 65 percent; It was the strongest rally since 1979 and outperformed nearly all major asset classes. This kind of performance often raises concerns about whether gains have already been made.
The factors that determined gold’s strength last year still persist and, in some cases, are becoming stronger. Gold inherently tends to thrive in uncertainty.
Neither metal is risk-free after an outstanding 2025.
Last year, investors grappled with falling U.S. interest rates, rising geopolitical tensions, ongoing concerns about currency depreciation and record levels of central bank buying. These factors combined to create a rare alignment of tailwinds, many of which remain firmly in place today.
One of the most important driving forces for gold was the stable accumulation of central banks. Motivation is strategic rather than speculative. The Trump administration’s ongoing geopolitical assertiveness, combined with emerging markets’ concerns about over-reliance on the US dollar, continues to support demand. The Chinese central bank stated that it has been purchasing gold consecutively for more than a year and emphasized that this trend is not over yet.
On the retail side, demand for gold ETFs from Asia is increasing. In the December quarter of 2025, Asian gold ETFs attracted a record $18.5 billion in inflows, accounting for more than half of global demand during what is already the strongest second quarter of gold ETF inflows on record.
This shift is particularly significant because just a few years ago Asian gold ETF activity was negligible. Today, these cash-rich and increasingly sophisticated investors are emerging as a genuine price-setting force.
Gold becoming a more common portfolio allocation in the region strengthens the case for higher prices.
Silver: spectacular gains but a bumpier road
If gold had a strong 2025, silver would be in a league of its own. Its value increased by 150 percent last year. But there’s a problem with this level of performance: Much of it was due to temporary supply disruptions rather than a simple increase in underlying demand.
Therefore, it can be said that the outlook for silver for the next 12 months is volatile. Prices are likely to remain closely linked to gold, but sharper moves in both directions are possible.
Last year’s meteoric rise was fueled by three overlapping forces. First, fears about tariffs linked to U.S. Section 232 investigations led to large amounts of silver shifting to U.S. exchanges. Secondly, the extraordinary demand for jewelery in India ahead of Diwali has resulted in local premiums rising to unprecedented levels. And finally, speculative ETF flows gained momentum as silver regained retail interest.
These forces pushed silver to record levels by draining liquidity from London, where global benchmark prices are set.
The biggest near-term risk for silver lies in the resolution of the US tariff investigations. If silver is ultimately excluded from tariffs, the easing of anxiety could trigger a rapid meltdown of U.S. inventories and lead to a sharp pullback in prices before the market stabilizes.
While this may sound negative, it can also create opportunities. A deeper correction that would push the gold/silver ratio back into historically tight territory could offer a more attractive entry point for long-term investors.
Beyond the volatility, silver’s long-term situation remains intact. Its close relationship with gold means it often benefits from the same macro forces, while its industrial uses, particularly in technology and energy applications, create an extra layer of demand over time.
The message for investors targeting gold and silver in 2026 is subtle. Gold looks well positioned for another strong year, supported by structural shifts in interest rates, central bank demand and investor behavior. While silver offers potentially higher growth, it also introduces greater uncertainty and sharper volatility.
Neither metal is risk-free after an outstanding 2025. However, in a world still marked by geopolitical tension and economic adjustment, gold in particular continues to shine as an asset that can offer both resilience and opportunity in the coming year.
Justin Lin is an investment strategist at Global X ETFs Australia.
- The advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence readers’ decisions about investments or financial products. They should always seek their own professional advice, taking into account their personal circumstances, before making financial decisions.
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