Could Keir Starmer survive an Andy Burnham leadership challenge?
NNew year, new Keir. At least that was the plan.
The Prime Minister kicked off 2026 with a “promise of renewal” and a promise that Britain would turn the corner after his first full year in power. In a video released on New Year’s Day, he vowed to cut the cost of living and get Britain “back on track” in a bid to salvage his relationship with disappointed voters and his own disgruntled MPs.
Three weeks into the new year, it’s safe to say Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t started the year the way he’d hoped. Although the prime minister’s allies claim that he was distracted by ongoing international crises over Venezuela and Greenland, this year began the same way last year ended.
There were more humiliating U-turns on business rates and mandatory digital ID for pubs, Labor remained stagnant in the polls, miles behind Nigel Farage’s Reform, and the murmurs grew louder about whether Starmer was the right man to lead the party.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir’s attempts to persuade his own MPs by inviting them for drinks at Chequers, the prime minister’s country house of good graces, have hit a snag. Some are even planning to boycott the event.
“If I had gone, it would have been just reading him the riot act,” said one Labor MP Independent“and I don’t think it’s the right place for it.”
Others feel they are underestimated. “My invite won’t last for weeks,” complained another. “Obviously I’m not at the top of the list.”
A former faithful minister had despaired while speaking to him. Independent: “We don’t know what we’re doing, where we’re going. Our colleagues go out in the morning to defend something (to broadcasters) and then they realize we’ve changed our mind. It’s a chaotic situation.”
The mood within the party remains desperate, but Sir Keir’s need to curry favor with the backbenchers has become even more urgent now that a potential path has been opened for the return to parliament of Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who many want to replace Sir Keir as Labor leader and prime minister.
The specter of Mr Burnham’s return to parliament dominates party conversation; This is a man whom one backbencher described as “the only man who can save us from Nigel Farage and fascism”.
There has been speculation in Westminster for months that Andrew Gwynne, the MP for Gorton and Denton, would resign, allowing Mr Burnham to become an MP in a by-election. Mr Gwynne announced his resignation on Thursday but the mayor of Greater Manchester has yet to throw his hat in the ring. And on Saturday Mr Burnham confirmed he would seek permission to stand up.
But a vote that will take time to organise, opens up the possibility of his rival coming to the House of Commons just as the prime minister is at his lowest ebb, following what are expected to be disastrous Scottish and Welsh elections, including in London, and English council elections at the beginning of May.
The question now is whether Sir Keir and his powerful chief of staff Morgan McSweeney will allow Burnham to stand. There are murmurs that mechanisms such as the all-female or all-Bame shortlist are being used to prevent her from throwing her hat in the ring.
A senior minister and Burnham ally has warned Independent He confirmed in September last year that Starmer would block Burnham’s candidacy and that they had thought it would happen ever since. After all, the mayor of Greater Manchester will “be running not just to be an MP, but to be prime minister”.
But angry MPs have already made it clear that they do not want to put up with such Machiavellian machinations and that “there will be a reaction.”
One ally said: “I think the backlash to blocking Andy will be so bad that MPs will rise up and probably hasten Starmer’s departure.”
Others are less convinced. “Who’s Andy?” said one MP. “Now is not the time for these games”
So why Burnham and not one of the other candidates already in parliament?
The mayor of Greater Manchester now appears to have the support of the Socialist Campaign MPs Group as well as other groups in the party. MPs who support him believe that, given the public mood, if the prime minister is replaced it should come from someone “untainted” by the Starmer government and its unpopular decisions.
This eliminates Sir Keir’s former aide Angela Rayner. He left the government last year after it was revealed that he could not pay enough taxes for a new flat. But he is thought to believe this is not a fatal obstacle to his return to government – potentially to the top job.
“The problem is that he is no longer a minister because he was forced to resign because of his taxes, not because he resigned on principle because of social benefits or two child allowances,” said one MP.
It will also eliminate health minister Wes Streeting, whose position as a leadership candidate appears to have been strengthened by attacks on him by Starmer’s allies. And then there’s Ed Miliband, who remains popular with Labor members. Friends insist he is “inoculated” against the top job by his unsuccessful stint as Labor leader between 2010 and 2015, but this has failed to quell speculation about his future.
As for Mr. Burnham, there remain two issues. Even if he were allowed to become the Labor candidate, could he really win the by-election at a time when Labor is so far behind Reform in the opinion polls?
Meanwhile, during any parliamentary race his campaign would attract so much attention that he would, as one ally put it, “have a target on his back.” The threat of George Galloway to run and speculation that Greens leader Zack Polanski would also run alongside former Reform chairman Zia Yusuf were taken as evidence that the by-election “won’t exactly be easy to win”, as one ally put it.
Regardless of whether Mr Burnham returns to Westminster, there are other pitfalls awaiting the beleaguered prime minister.
The danger facing Sir Keir is perhaps represented by Monday’s flight from Glasgow Airport, which carries the bulk of Scottish MPs to London for the start of parliamentary week. This flight, which took place just before Christmas, revealed the dividing line within the party.
As Scottish Labor Party leader Anas Sarwar held an event in Scotland’s largest city, differences of opinion over Starmer’s future became evident. As one member of parliament said: “The MPs who want to [another leader] When we went to Anas’ event, those who still supported Keir flew south.” They added: “There weren’t many people on that flight.”
There appears to be resignation among some that Starmer will go this year, largely as a result of Labour’s struggle at the polls. Some MPs in the north of England and the Midlands tell the same story. An MP whose seat was safe even in the 2019 elections, where Boris Johnson led the Conservative Party to a big victory, said, “If there were an election tomorrow, I would lose my seat to Reform.” Another told a similar story: “If I lose my seat I’ll be the first Labor MP to do so in 100 years; I really don’t want that. But I’d definitely lose to Reform at the moment.”
Now even the loyalists are starting to question whether Starmer will lead them to the next election. One MP said: “Look, I don’t think we should be talking about dumping Keir in May, or even this year. The Conservatives have shown us that it hasn’t solved any problems and has sent us into a cycle of disaster. But if the polls are still bad a year before the election, then I’d be the first to tell Keir, ‘I think you should give someone else a chance’.”
Sir Keir served chilli and rice at his first dinner with Labor MPs and partners at Checkers earlier this month. The Prime Minister hopes a leisurely evening of food and wine in a stately home at the foot of the Chiltern Hills will at least partially distract disgruntled Labor MPs from potential rivals. That is, those who participated.
