Massive Shift in Red State Leaves CNN Data Guru ‘Mind Blown’
A major red flag has emerged for Republicans in Texas.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten revealed Wednesday that Democrats are voting at higher rates than Republicans in state primaries; This is something that hasn’t happened in over twenty years.
Enten said this development “blown his mind”.
As of Wednesday morning, 53 percent of votes cast in Texas came from registered Democrats, while Republicans made up the remaining 47 percent. That’s a big difference from the last midterm elections in 2022, when only 38 percent of votes were cast by Democrats at this stage, Enten said.
Enten said the difference in votes cast “hasn’t been that close” since 2002. The shift also comes as Democrats have massively overperformed in off-year and special elections since President Donald Trump took office again in January 2025.
“What a change from where we were four years ago,” Enten continued. “At this point, more people in Texas are voting Democratic.”
Harry Enten says there’s been a big change in who will vote in Texas this spring compared to 2022. /CNN
Such a trend could create problems for Republicans not just in Texas but across the country.
Enten noted that larger primary turnout in previous interim years (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) coincided with which party won control of the House, which is now a slim GOP majority.
“It’s still a close race, but the idea that more people in Texas might vote Democratic, given that Republicans are so outspoken in voting Democratic in Texas?” Enten said. “Again, like I said at the top, wow!”
There has been a great deal of national attention to racing in Texas this winter.
Lone Star voters are currently casting ballots for governor, Senate seat and high-profile House races; as was the case for married Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, who was embroiled in a sex scandal involving a former aide who took his own life in September.
Early voting in Texas began on February 17, and Election Day is Tuesday, March 3.
