Iran missiles threaten US forces, lack homeland strike capability

President Donald Trump has warned that Iran is trying to build missiles that “could soon reach the United States,” raising concerns about a weapons program that already puts U.S. forces in the Middle East within range.

Officials say Iran does not currently have a missile capable of hitting US territory. But the existing ballistic missile arsenal could target major American military installations in the Gulf, and U.S. officials say the issue has emerged as a major sticking point in ongoing nuclear negotiations.

Here’s what Iran can hit right now and how close it is to reaching the US

What can Iran strike right now?

Iran is widely considered by Western defense analysts to operate the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. Its arsenal consists mainly of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of up to about 2,000 kilometers (about 1,200 miles).

This range makes available a vast network of US military infrastructure across the Gulf.

Setups in this envelope include:

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• Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command
• Naval Support Activity Bahrain hosts US 5th Fleet
• Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, a major Army logistics and command center
• Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait is used by US Air Force units
• Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
• Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates
• Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts US aircraft

US forces have withdrawn from some regional positions in recent months, including the transfer of Al Asad Air Base in Iraq back to Iraqi control earlier this year. However, major facilities in the Gulf remain within the range of Iran’s current missile inventory.

Israeli air defenses target Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 16, 2025. (MATAN GOLAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Multiple U.S. officials told Fox News this week that personnel at the Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain had been reduced to “mission critical” levels due to rising tensions. Another U.S. official disputed that characterization, saying no personnel or their dependents were ordered to leave.

At the same time, the United States has increased its significant naval and air assets in and around the region in recent days. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group operates with a number of destroyers in the Arabian Sea, while additional destroyers are positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is also advancing towards the area. U.S. Air Force fighter jets, including F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and A-10s, are based in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and are supported by aerial refueling tankers, early warning aircraft and surveillance platforms, according to a recent military briefing on Fox News.

Iran has previously shown its willingness to use ballistic missiles against US targets.

In January 2020, following a US strike in which Islamic Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qasem Soleimani was killed, Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at US positions in Iraq. Dozens of American soldiers were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.

This incident underlined the vulnerability of forward-deployed forces within range of Iran’s missile arsenal.

Can Iran reach Europe?

The maximum range of most publicly known Iranian missile systems is estimated to be around 2,000 kilometers.

Depending on the launch location, this could put parts of Southeastern Europe within its potential reach, including Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. The United States has approximately 80,000 soldiers stationed throughout Europe, including these three countries.

Iran is widely considered by Western defense analysts to operate the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. Its arsenal consists mainly of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of up to about 2,000 kilometers (about 1,200 miles). (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Reaching deeper into Europe would require longer-range systems, which Iran has publicly demonstrated are operational.

Can Iran hit the USA?

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Iran currently does not have an intercontinental ballistic missile that can hit US territory.

To reach the east coast of the United States, a missile would need a range of approximately 10,000 kilometers; This is far beyond Iran’s known operational capacity.

But US intelligence agencies have warned that Iran’s space launch vehicle program could provide the technological basis for a future long-range missile.

The Defense Intelligence Agency noted in a recent threat review that Iran “has space launch vehicles that it could use to develop a militarily viable ICBM by 2035 if Tehran decides to pursue this capability.”

This assessment places any potential for Iran’s intercontinental missile capability roughly a decade away and depends on Tehran’s political decision.

US officials and defense analysts particularly noted Iran’s recent space launches, including solid-fuel rockets such as the Zuljanah. Solid-fuel engines can be stored and launched faster than liquid-fuel rockets; This is also an important feature for military ballistic missiles.

Space launch vehicles and long-range ballistic missiles rely on similar multistage rocket technology. Analysts say advances in Iran’s space program could shorten the path to an intercontinental-range missile if Tehran chooses to adapt the technology for military use.

But for now, Iran has not deployed an operational ICBM, and the U.S. homeland remains out of range of its current ballistic missile arsenal.

US missile defenses—capable but limited

The United States relies on layered missile defense systems, including THAAD, Patriot, and ship-based interceptors, to protect its forces and allies from ballistic missile threats in the Middle East.

These systems are technically capable, but their preventive inventory is limited.

During the Iran-Israeli missile exchange in June 2025, US forces reportedly fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors; That was about a quarter of the total the Pentagon has funded to date, according to defense analysts.

Economics also underscore the imbalance: Open source estimates suggest that Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles could cost as little as hundreds of thousands of dollars, while advanced U.S. interceptors like THAAD cost about $12 million or more per missile.

Sensitive inventory levels are classified. But experts who track Pentagon procurement data warn that replacing advanced interceptors could take years; That means a prolonged, high-intensity missile exchange could strain stockpiles even if U.S. defenses remain effective.

Missile program complicates negotiations

The ballistic missile issue has also emerged as a major fault line in ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s refusal to limit its ballistic missile program is a “big problem,” signaling that the administration views the arsenal as central to long-term regional security.

While current negotiations have focused primarily on Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment activities, U.S. officials have argued that delivery systems, including ballistic missiles, cannot be separated from concerns about a potential nuclear weapon.

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But Iranian officials have insisted that their missile program is defensive in nature and not subject to negotiation as part of nuclear-focused talks.

As diplomacy continues, the strategic reality becomes clear: Iran cannot currently hit U.S. territory with a ballistic missile. But U.S. forces in the Middle East remain within range of Tehran’s existing arsenal, and future capabilities remain a matter of intelligence concern.

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