One month into Iran war, only hard choices for Trump

As global energy prices rise and job approval ratings decline, Donald Trump faces tough choices after a month-long war with Iran: strike a potentially flawed deal and walk away, or risk a protracted conflict that could escalate military tensions and consume his presidency.

Despite intense diplomatic activity, Trump is ending another week of a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign trying to contain the widening Middle East crisis as Iran maintains control of oil and gas shipments in the Gulf and continues missile and drone attacks across the region.

Analysts say the real question now is whether the US president is prepared to slow down or accelerate what critics call the war of choice, which has sparked the worst global energy supply shock in history and spread far beyond the region.

A senior White House official said Trump had told aides he wanted to avoid an “endless war” and find a negotiated exit, urging them to emphasize the four-to-six week period of hostilities he had publicly stated, and that such a timeline appeared “shaky.”

At the same time, Trump has threatened a major military escalation if the talks fail.

Trump’s diplomatic overtures to Iran, including a 15-point peace proposal sent through an intermediary channel with Pakistan, appeared to indicate an increasingly urgent search for a way out. But it remains unclear whether there are realistic prospects for productive negotiations at this time.

“President Trump has slim options everywhere to end the war,” said Jonathan Panikoff, the former U.S. deputy national intelligence official for the Middle East. “Part of the challenge is the lack of clarity about what a satisfactory outcome would be.”

A White House official emphasized that the Iran campaign “will conclude when the Commander in Chief determines that our objectives have been achieved” and that Trump has laid out clear goals.

Without hedging his claims, Trump is apparently sending thousands more US troops to the region and warning Iran of a massive attack, possibly including the use of ground troops, if it does not give in to his demands.

Analysts say such a show of force could be aimed at pressuring Tehran for concessions, but it risks drawing the United States into a longer conflict, and any commitment to draw boots on Iranian soil could anger many American voters.

Another possible scenario, experts say, would be for the United States to launch a final major airstrike in Operation Epic Fury to further weaken Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear facilities, and then Trump would declare victory and walk away, saying his war objectives had been achieved.

But such a claim would ring hollow unless the vital Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, which Iran has so far refused to allow. Trump expressed frustration over European allies’ refusal to send warships to help secure the waterway.

Trump, who has repeatedly promised to keep the United States out of foreign conflicts, appears to be having trouble containing the expanding war he started with Israel.

Even as he continued to deliver triumphant assessments, he increasingly oriented his messaging toward reassuring nervous financial markets and pressed his top aides to emphasize that the war would soon end, according to a senior White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

But the lack of a clear exit strategy poses dangers to both Trump’s presidential legacy and the future of his party at a time when Republicans are struggling to defend their slim majority in Congress in November’s midterm elections.

Trump’s biggest miscalculation was the extent of Tehran’s retaliation. It used its remaining missiles and drones to attack Israel and neighboring Gulf states, sending shock waves through the global economy, mostly by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes.

“The Iranian government’s argument is that they can endure more pain for longer than their rivals, and they may be right,” said Jon Alterman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

The White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump and his team were “well prepared” for Iran’s response in the strait and were confident the strait would be reopened soon.

Even so, the clearest sign of Trump’s growing concern about the war came Monday when he dramatically sidestepped the threat of destroying Iran’s power grid if ships were not allowed to pass through the strait.

In a move widely thought to be aimed at calming markets, he took a five-day pause on carrying out his threat to give diplomacy a chance. On Thursday, he extended this period for another 10 days.

At the same time, pressure at home is increasing.

Trump’s overall approval rating fell to 36 percent, the lowest level since his return to the White House, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The White House is increasingly concerned about the political effects of the war, a former senior Trump administration official told Reuters, echoing concerns raised by Republican politicians about the upcoming midterm elections.

However, for now, the diplomatic route does not offer an easy solution.

Trump is keeping the world guessing, making statements aimed at calming volatile markets one moment, and issuing threats to raise energy prices the next.

“Trump is sending conflicting signals,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

“A one-man ‘fog of war’ messaging machine to keep opponents off balance.”