Starmer is facing his judgment day over Mandelson missteps | Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer has spent much of the last 24 hours working on a plan that senior government officials have already described as “judgement day”: his showdown with MPs on Monday over Peter Mandelson’s latest revelations.

The prime minister was apparently not told about Mandelson’s review failure, raising suspicion at Westminster and accusations that he had sacked a senior civil servant to save his premiership.

It also shed light on what many consider to be Starmer’s greatest failing: his political judgement. Although some heralded the appointment of Mandelson as the UK’s latest “Trump whisperer” as a stroke of genius at the time, the risks were always clear.

It was widely known that Starmer’s pick to be Britain’s ambassador to Washington had been fired from the cabinet twice, had an ongoing relationship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and had business links with China.

There was no need for the Cabinet Office’s etiquette and ethics team to raise red flags and warn the prime minister about the reputational risk of appointing him (though it did).

His allies say Starmer would have blocked the appointment had he been aware that Mandelson had failed to vet. Of course, if he had been aware and this had continued like this, he would be in a much worse situation than he is now.

Instead, the prime minister seems like a man who is incapable of actually being in control, apathetic and disinterested in what is actually going on inside his government. Although he says he was “surprised” that he wasn’t told, it’s hard to escape the impression that he might have found out if he had asked a few questions.

One thing that is currently puzzling MPs is why neither the prime minister nor his political aides thought to ask about Mandelson’s extensive security clearance. Or actually the system couldn’t tell him that until last week.

When officials told Starmer on Tuesday night that Mandelson had failed his review, he immediately demanded – we are told – that all the facts be laid out so he could update parliament.

No doubt he will be asked on Monday why it was not worth sharing just the headline truth with parliament at last Wednesday’s PMQs. Ministers are expected to correct the record as soon as they realize they have made a mistake, inadvertently or otherwise.

Instead, MPs heard from the Guardian; cabinet ministers shared stories of what they learned while in the air, on trains, knocking on doors; All of this came as a surprise and added to the sense of turmoil gripping the government.

Starmer has promised to restore stability and order when he comes to power after years of chaos in the Conservative Party. There were high hopes that this former lawyer (“Mr Rules”, as a cabinet minister described him at the time) would restore honesty.

It’s not just MPs who are disappointed by the Mandelson saga, but also the wider public. What might pass for a story about the Westminster process is actually a much more important story that goes to the heart of the kind of man the prime minister is and the kind of government he leads.

Starmer was facing a tough few weeks with Labor poised for defeat in local and devolved elections in May and the Iran crisis expected to have further economic impact at home.

The Prime Minister’s team had carefully prepared how to get him through this, and he was aided by the silence within Labor ranks as he navigated a difficult international situation.

Labor MPs, many of whom had been agitating for change at the top for months, stepped back from the brink when they were presented with a genuine opportunity: the party’s Scottish leader, Anas Sarwar, called for his return in February. Downing Street aides breathed a sigh of relief.

But Labor MPs will be watching closely when Starmer appears before them on Monday – waiting to be persuaded. And again when suspended civil servant Oliver Robbins answered questions from the foreign affairs committee on Tuesday.

They know that the people have been losing faith in the political system for years. Every twist in the Mandelson scandal accelerates this. So when another opportunity arises to change leadership, they can take it.