Labour set to lose three-quarters of council seats in next week’s elections, polling expert predicts
Labor faces a “serious” loss of more than 75 per cent of the council seats it defends across England next week, according to a devastating new assessment from a leading pollster.
Conservative colleague Robert Hayward predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party will lose 1,850 seats in the local election, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will be the biggest gainer, gaining 1,550 seats, and the Greens will gain 500 seats.
Labor is also predicted to lose in its former fiefdoms of Wales and Scotland, where Plaid Cymru will be the largest party and the SNP will fall just short of a majority.
Lord Hayward said the size of the losses would be “bad news for Sir Keir and Labor, which defends 2,557 seats”.
“I would use the word ‘violent,'” he said Independent. “This reflects the pincer movement Labor faces between the Greens on one side and Reform on the other.”
He noted recent reports that a cabinet minister had said Sir Keir’s senior team would have to take action to sack the Prime Minister if the party lost more than 1,500 seats.
“This would border on a collective nervous breakdown among his cabinet colleagues,” the minister was quoted as saying. “Well, the figure is well over 1,500,” added Lord Hayward.
The election follows a difficult month for the prime minister, who has struggled with the Mandelson scandal, the effects of war in the Middle East and fears the impact of the conflict on the economy.
Lord Hayward also said the result would give the Reformation a “huge boost”. But he added: “If you look [polling] “Based on last year’s figures, they expected to win around 2,000 seats.”
He said the Greens would be “very pleased because they have the momentum”.
But he warned that winning seats could be a poisoned chalice for both parties. “It will raise expectations. It depends on whether they take control of the councils through overall control or as the leading party in the coalition. As reform has discovered, governing is not always easy.”
For the Conservatives, a “reasonable proportion” of the 600 seats Lord Hayward will lose comes from counties such as Essex, which had to be contested last year, although he said the party would still be “disappointed”.
He also predicted the Liberal Democrats would win 150 seats but said they needed to win council to be included in the “conversation”.
Co-chairman of the University of Exeter Electoral Centre, Dr. Hannah Bunting made similar predictions, saying the outcome would ultimately be “a continuation of the fragmentation we have seen over the last few years. At first this only hurt the Conservatives who were in power at the time, but it looks likely to extend to the Labor Party who are now in power.”
The Prime Minister’s political spokesman said ahead of the polls: “This local election comes down to a simple choice: Labor is on your side, your local Labor council is working in partnership with the Labor government, or Nigel Farage and Reform will put your family, NHS and community at risk.”
Asked about Sir Keir’s message to MPs who could face dire consequences, the spokesman refused to “preempt” the outcome and emphasized the government’s record of “giving workers more rights”, investing in public services and tackling child poverty.
