Keir Starmer set for London election nightmare as new mega-poll reveals Labour is ‘under siege’ from all sides – and the Greens will have bumper night
A new mega-poll in London has warned that Labor is now ‘under siege’ from all sides, as support for the Green Party and Reform soars sharply.
More in Common conducted a ground-breaking ‘MRP’ survey in the capital, asking 2,646 adults how they planned to vote over a three-week period.
The findings will cause pessimism in Downing Street because it reveals that Labor’s support has fallen by 15 points since the general election, while the Greens’ support has increased by 10 points.
Although Labor is still ahead in the city of nine million, support has fallen to just 28%.
The Green Party is currently holding Labor’s breath at 20% and is on track to win the highest share of the vote in a London borough for the first time.
It found Zack Polanski’s party is currently the most popular party in Hackney, leading by three points and within two points of Labor in Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham.
The rebel left party is also expected to come in second place behind Labor in 16 counties, and within five points of the ruling party in five of them.
Keir Starmer’s last-minute campaign efforts appear to have failed to win support from key undecided voters
This would put Polanski’s party within range of controlling almost a third of the capital in the next London local elections if it continues to gain support at the expense of Labour.
Reform UK is on the rise in outer London and is expected to take a nine-point lead in the vote in Havering.
In Bexley, the leafy south-east suburb once represented in Parliament by Ted Heath, Reform are now neck-and-neck with the Conservatives.
Nigel Farage’s party is also poised to give the Conservative Party a bloody nose once again, rising to 21.3% of the vote in Bromley.
The right-wing party also gained 24 per cent in Barking and Dagenham, where Labor won all seats in 2022.
While Keir Starmer has the most to lose in the capital on Thursday, the Conservatives are also bracing for a bruising night.
Kemi Badenoch’s party will be reduced to a handful of strongholds outside London, leading in just five boroughs: Bexley, Bromley, Harrow, Hillingdon and Kensington and Chelsea.
The Green Party is set to come first in four boroughs with 20% of the vote, just a few points behind Labor
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is campaigning heavily in rural suburbs such as Bexley and Bromley, stealing votes from the Conservatives.
The party’s hopes of surprise wins in Westminster and Wandsworth appear to have been dashed, as they are still 11 points and 7 points behind Labor respectively.
The Liberal Democrats are still set to remain dominant in south-west London’s posh areas, including Richmond, Kingston and Sutton, despite having made next to no progress in the capital since the last local elections.
Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, explained: ‘The 2026 election will show that the capital is not immune to the electoral fragmentation that is roiling politics across the country.
‘Former Labor strongholds look set to see the Greens make major gains, with the party potentially controlling or emerging as the largest party in inner London.
‘As the Greens advance in the Labor heartland, Reform looks set to follow suit in outlying London boroughs such as Bexley, previously safe for the Conservatives.
‘When the gains from the independents are added in, it is likely that the London election map we saw on May 8 will be completely unrecognizable from the map we are used to.’
A Labor source told the Mail: ‘The Greens will end up with chaos councils in the capital. Zack Polanski has the wrong plan for London and the wrong plan for England.
‘We will continue to fight for every vote. ‘The only poll that matters is on Thursday, May 7.’
