Labour MPs ‘to urge ministers to scrap migration reforms’ as net migration set to drop to lowest level since Covid
The government could face pressure from Labor MPs to abandon immigration reforms after this week’s figures are expected to show net migration falling to its lowest level since the pandemic.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish figures showing net migration figures (the difference between the number of arrivals and the number of departures) for 2025 on Thursday.
Migration expert Dr. Ben Brindle said the figures could show net migration falling below 200,000 for the first time since March 2021, but the drop is only expected to be temporary and the figure could rise after fewer people leaving the country.
Labor MPs are understood to plan to use the upcoming figures to pressure the Home Office to reverse plans for further immigration reform, including the implementation of new settlement rules on people arriving in the UK since 2021.
In plans announced by the home secretary in November, the default qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) will be increased from the current five to ten years. Meanwhile, immigrants will only be entitled to benefits and social housing if they become British citizens, and those in the country illegally will have to wait up to 30 years for long-term residence in the UK, under plans.
Labor Party MP Andy McDonald, who was among those opposing the reforms, said: The Times – The person who first reported the story hoped Thursday’s numbers would prompt a rethink.
“There is something inherently un-British about changing the ILR eligibility period retrospectively, which will cause huge upheaval for workers who have come and settled here at our request,” he said.
“They and their families are valued members of our society. They pay their taxes and contribute positively to our economy and society.
“To overturn all this is beyond cruel and beyond economically stupid, especially given the huge declines in net migration, when there are so many vacancies in social care and other sectors that we cannot otherwise fill. This bad policy needs to be scrapped quickly.”
However, Dr. from Oxford University’s Migration Observatory. Ben Brindle explained that he expected the fall in net migration to be only temporary and that it was due to an increase in the number of people leaving the UK following restrictions on immigration by the last Conservative government.
“Net migration stood at 204,000 in June 2025, and we know the government has issued fewer visas since then, so I expect further declines. But it’s incredibly uncertain how far net migration will fall,” he told The Times.
“This is because there are an unusually high number of people entering the UK after Brexit who still hold temporary visas: whether they stay or leave will have a huge impact on net migration over the next few years.
“The decline in net migration below around 200,000 is likely to be temporary. Most immigrants only stay in the UK for a few years, so higher levels of immigration tend to be followed by higher levels of immigration.
“Immigration will decrease later this decade as people who arrived earlier migrate, so the ‘net’ figure will begin to rise. In fact, within five years net migration levels may look similar to today.”
The latest pushback against the government’s immigration reforms comes as Andy Burnham seeks to return to Westminster via a Makerfield by-election to challenge Sir Keir Starmer.
Last year the mayor of Greater Manchester became the most senior Labor figure to criticize Ms Mahmood’s reforms, saying it would leave many immigrants arriving in the UK “in limbo and unable to integrate”. He is expected to reverse the plans if he takes over as prime minister.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs was contacted for comment.
