A Supreme Court decision could upend Alaska’s crucial Senate race

Mail arrives by plane to villages on Kodiak Island off the coast of southwestern Alaska. It takes at least two days to send a ballot to the center of the archipelago; if the frequent storms in the region did not disrupt air traffic.

It is a common problem throughout Alaska. And that’s a big reason why the state allows ballots postmarked on Election Day to be counted up to 10 days later; This is a critical reprieve for voters in remote communities unconnected to the state’s highway system and .

That’s why Alaskans across the political spectrum are sounding the alarm about the Supreme Court’s yet-to-be-decided decision. The majority of judges seem to A decision to forgo the counting of late-arriving ballots. . This could potentially disenfranchise hundreds of voters in the remote villages of Kodiak and thousands more in remote corners of The Last Frontier, and upend Alaska’s electoral process in a state that could determine control of the Senate.

“This is very important in a place like Kodiak, because absentee voting is not a convenience here,” said Jared Griffin, the independent mayor of Kodiak Island County. “It will really hurt rural, remote voters.”

A ban on late-arriving ballots could have a major impact on Alaska Natives, many of whom already live in rural villages. When receiving and returning ballot papers. It’s a scenario that has fueled fears of low bipartisan turnout in the state’s highly competitive Senate race between former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. The competition may decide control of the room.

Democrats in particular are pressing charges against Republicans, accusing them of pushing changes that could disenfranchise members of a key Democratic-leaning voting bloc.

“This would be disastrous. It’s malicious,” said Eric Croft, chairman of the Alaska Democratic Party, referring to its potential impact on rural and Native voters. “This would hurt participation in rural Alaska. And Mary Peltola is very powerful in Native communities and the community she comes from. So I think this would hurt her.”

‘Blunt force trauma’

President Donald Trump wins Alaska by 13 points in 2024. But both parties see a competitive Senate race shaping up.

Peltola holds a narrow lead over Sullivan in the few public polls that have tested the race so far, leading Republicans by 5 percentage points. From mid-March. National Democrats see Peltola as a big win in recruiting and have already spent more than $3 million to support his campaign, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

Republicans are also pouring money into the state, a sign they don’t see Sullivan as a lock. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Majority Leader John Thune, pledged this week to pour $15 million into the race; That’s a staggering amount for a state of 740,000 people.

The crux of Peltola’s hopes of flipping the state (and possibly the Senate) is upping the score in the Bush district, which Alaskans use for the vast expanses of isolated villages from the Aleutian Islands to the North Slope that are separated from the state’s road system and contain most of the indigenous communities.

Alaska Natives make up about 20 percent of the state’s voters and are a powerful force in politics. They helped propel Peltola, who is Yup’ik and has deep roots in the Bethel area, into the 2022 special election in which he will spend the remainder of the late Rep. Don Young’s term in the House. In elections held in November that year, Peltola swept the vast majority of Native-majority districts, according to one report. . They also supported GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski against right-wing rivals; Sullivan also has ties to communities.

Most Alaska Natives rely on voting by mail, and activists see it as a critical tool in rural areas where voter turnout is low. . This includes the Peltola district represented in the State Assembly.

Ballots are arriving late from across the state, where more than four-fifths of communities are disconnected from the major road system. But they are arriving later from rural and indigenous communities. More than those from mostly urban and non-Indigenous areas, according to a brief filed by a group of Indigenous organizations to the Supreme Court. In State Assembly District 38, which Peltola represents, nearly four-fifths of absentee ballots came in after Election Day.

In the lawsuit filed by the Republican National Committee and backed by the Trump administration, none of the late-arriving votes will be counted if the Supreme Court strikes down the five-business-day grace period in Mississippi.

“They want ballot papers in their hands on election day [so] You know the winner of that night. “It’s tough,” said State Rep. Maxine Dibert, an Alaska Native Democrat who represents Fairbanks and a surrounding district in the state’s rural heartland. “There are already barriers to voting.”

The decision, which could come this summer, could upend election administration in Alaska, with the state’s primary elections just two months away; That’s the worst-case scenario that has prompted the state’s Republican attorney general, Stephen Cox. in its final decision. Although Cox did not take sides in the case, he highlighted the “unique challenges” Alaskans face in voting in a state where variable weather conditions can knock out postal services and polling places sometimes lack the staff to open.

Peltola’s campaign said in a statement that it would work to ensure “Alaskans’ voices are heard” in November.

“Mary believes everyone who is eligible to vote should have access to the ballot box, and D.C.’s one-size-fits-all rules rarely work in large rural states like Alaska,” campaign spokesman Harry Child said. “Whether by road, plane or boat, we will reach Alaskans where they are and ensure they can participate in our safe and secure elections.”

Alaska leaders are also preparing for the much less likely passage of the SAVE America Act, a set of voting restrictions imposed by Trump and his allies that state officials and local activists warn could further disenfranchise rural and Indigenous peoples. The bill has stalled in the Senate in part over objections from Republican Lisa Murkowski, Alaska’s senior senator, but Sullivan supports it.

“We are experiencing a lot of blunt force trauma because of this multifaceted effort to not meet voters where we are,” said Michelle Sparck, who runs Get Out the Native Vote, a nonpartisan group dedicated to increasing Native participation.

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Murkowski, who has garnered strong domestic support in her campaigns and backed Sullivan’s re-election bid against former ally Peltola, has sharply criticized her party’s dual efforts to reduce mail-in voting and tighten ID requirements. He also warned that the Supreme Court’s decision eliminating the deadline for voting by mail would impact his state more than others.

“I have a state that is very dependent on mail-in voting, and we want to continue that,” he told POLITICO.

Sullivan has his own ties to Indigenous communities. He won the support of many federation leaders in their personal capacities. His wife, Julie Fate Sullivan, is Koyukon Athabascan and comes from an influential family.

A spokesman for Sullivan said the senator believes mail ballots cast on or before Election Day should be counted — even if they are received later.

“Senator Sullivan has a track record of advocating for the voting rights of Alaskans, particularly in rural and Alaska Native communities, dating back to his time as Alaska Attorney General. He believes that every eligible vote cast before or on Election Day should be counted,” Sullivan spokeswoman Amanda Coyne said in a statement. “He also applauds Alaska Attorney General Stephen Cox for filing an amicus brief in this case that highlights Alaska’s unique challenges and geography.”

Art Hackney, a veteran GOP official who runs an outside group supporting Sullivan’s reelection bid, said voters will get used to the prospect of having to mail their ballots in sooner. And he suggested the impact on the Senate race would be negligible.

“It’s just a matter of figuring out how to deal with it,” Hackney said. “Percentage impact, I guess you could flip a coin; a few this way, a few that way. They’re both going to fight for it.” [Native and rural] vote.”

But Democrats, who see Alaska as the linchpin of their hopes of taking back the Senate, say the restrictions could hurt Peltola on his home turf and potentially jeopardize their broader midterm strategy.

They argue that Alaska has already taken steps to tighten voting rules. Lawmakers last month sent a proposal to GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy to update voter rolls, create a ballot tracking system and create a ballot curation process.

“These efforts only serve one thing: They disenfranchise people in rural Alaska,” said Jim Lottsfeldt, a longtime Democratic strategist in the state who is not involved in the Senate race. “You could argue that these things hurt Peltola because, as the first Native woman elected to statewide office, she obviously has the support of Alaska Natives. This is a core constituency.”