US stock market outlook for November 17-21: All eyes on tech earnings, Nvidia and economic data
Data and expert commentary from Charles Schwab, CNBC and market analysts point to next week being a big one, with a ‘moderately bullish’ outlook relative to the first; However, caution is needed as macroeconomic uncertainty and sector rotations continue to deteriorate sentiment.
As of Friday, November 14, 2025, the main indices closed with a decrease:
- S&P 500: down 1.66% to 6,737.49
- Nasdaq: 22,870.36, down 2.29%
- Dow Jones: 47,457.22, down 1.65%
Nvidia earnings: Catalyst for AI and technology investors
Nvidia, the dominant player in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor industry, is set to report earnings on Wednesday, the results of which are widely seen as a market referendum for the entire tech sector.
The week is also filled with earnings reports from Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Baidu and Lowe’s.
Analysts expect Nvidia to generate $54.9 billion (+56.4% YoY) in revenue, supported by continued demand for AI infrastructure and data center hardware. Stock option markets are priced with great volatility around the event; This reflects the outsized impact Nvidia’s performance and guidance can have on everything from individual chip stocks to the broader S&P 500. Wall Street consensus estimates based on broker commentary and recent quarters suggest Nvidia could beat estimates once again. However, AI-generated hype, investment sustainability and recent doubts about market positioning (including Michael Burry’s short position in Palantir) have raised risks: a strong report could reignite the ‘AI bull trade’, while a miss could trigger renewed selling and a bearish week for stocks.
First government economic data since lockdown
For the first time since the record-long government shutdown, investors will receive verified economic data, including the Empire State Manufacturing Index, industrial production, housing starts and unemployment claims.
The disruption of the shutdown made it difficult for traders and policymakers to gauge the true health of the U.S. economy, triggering uncertainty and volatility in the market.
Reliable data to be released this week is expected to clarify inflation, employment and growth trends, and it is stated that these data may affect short-term market forecasts as well as Federal Reserve policy.
Fed October meeting minutes
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its October meeting. This announcement is highly expected, given the central bank’s decision last month to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and halt its balance sheet runoff program in December.
The minutes will shed light on policymakers’ discussions about inflation and softness in the labor market at a time when new economic data is limited. Fed officials have warned of further rate cuts, with the December rate cut likely to fall below 50% by mid-November, down from a level almost certain in early October.
FAQ
Q: Why is Nvidia’s report considered so critical for markets?
Nvidia’s results are seen as an indicator of the health of the AI industry. The direction of the market may depend on whether its earnings and guidance meet sky-high expectations, which could impact both technology valuations and broader risk appetite.
Question: How did Fed signals affect interest rate expectations?
Fed meeting minutes will clarify policymakers’ stance after the interest rate cut in October. A rate cut in December is now less likely, and Fed officials remain cautious amid persistent inflation concerns.
Q: What does the recent sector rotation mean for investors?
The shift to defensive sectors (healthcare, energy, basic needs) shows diminishing faith in technology and AI momentum. This could continue if Nvidia disappoints or economic data misses forecasts.
