Aluminum prices are surging. Here’s how companies are handling the costs
A can of Coors Light beer and a Ford F-150 pickup truck.
Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Brandon Bell | Getty Images
Aluminum’s rise to the highest levels in recent years following the Iran war is creating cost pressures for businesses that produce everything from cars to beer cans.
Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange has risen more than 13% since the US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28. The commodity is currently up around 19% so far in 2026, reaching its highest levels since 2022 this year.
aluminum in 2026
According to Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett, prices are rising due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important transit route for the transportation of aluminum from the Middle East.
It estimates that 7% of the world’s aluminum is sourced from the region. Military strikes damaged facilities and about 3% of the world’s supply was taken off the market, the analyst said.
Impact on businesses
On: fordChief Financial Officer Sherry House said the Iran war has clouded the automaker’s outlook on aluminum, a key component of the F-150. The Detroit-based producer expects headwinds on the commodity to exceed $2 billion (roughly double the previous estimate), largely due to higher price tags for aluminum, House said.
“It’s going to be a little bit difficult to predict 2027 at this point given the volatility we’re seeing in commodities,” House told analysts late last month. “We were already seeing global industry shortages, especially on steel and aluminum, even before the situation in the Middle East started.”
Aluminum prices have been a key focus of Ford’s investor class, according to UBS analyst Joseph Spak. Ford shares have lost 17 percent of their value since the start of the US-Iran war. S&P 500 increased by 5.7% in the same period.
But in a note to clients last month, Spak said Wall Street’s concern about the commodity’s price was “overblown” and added that Ford had “hedged” its exposure to aluminum for this year.
Ford has been trading against the S&P 500 since March
MolsonCoors Finance chief Tracey Joubert said last week that the increase in the price of aluminum supplied to the US Midwest added about $30 million to the cost of goods sold in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Coors Light and Miller Lite parent using recyclable aluminum cans more than sixty years — further inflation is expected for commodities in the current quarter.
Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO Keurig Dr Pepperlisted aluminum as one of several products that saw price increases due to the Iran war. If these higher costs persist over the long term, the maker of Canada Dry and Snapple will have to create mitigation plans focused on preserving margins, DiSilvestro said.
“Like many CPG companies, we have both direct and indirect exposure to commodities impacted by conflict in the Middle East,” DiSilvestro said on a call with analysts last month, using the acronym for consumer packaged goods.
Dr Pepper soda in the warehouse of Dr Pepper Snapple Group’s bottling plant in Louisville, Kentucky, in April 2015.
Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
More pressure ahead
Wall Street does not expect any relief in the near term.
UBS expects aluminum supply to increase 0.3% in 2026, from the previous forecast of 2.4%. The bank cited disruptions in the Middle East and limited room for capacity increases in Europe.
Aluminum cans are shown during a production run before being filled with craft beer at Black Plague Brewery in Oceanside, California, on March 14, 2025.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Beyond the conflict, Bernstein’s Brackett said aluminum requires large amounts of energy, which means prices are also linked to the costs of natural gas and coal. Brackett said both increased due to the war, adding to price pressure.
“Aluminum prices are rising along with input costs,” Brackett wrote to clients last week. “There is an upside risk of a positive price impact on aluminum not only from the disruption of the supply chain, but also from the disruption of power supplies.”
