Wall Street firm sends analyst to the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what they found out

While the world’s oil traders scour satellite images and official statements for clues about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, one research firm appears to have taken a different approach: It claims to have sent an analyst directly to the conflict zone.

Citrini Research, which published a report that will shake the market bearish call On AI, he said earlier this year, Oman sent an analyst to the Musandam Peninsula, who traveled by boat to observe shipping activities firsthand amid rising tensions between Iran and the United States. What the analyst claims to have found challenges the dominant narrative influencing global markets that the critical oil artery has been effectively shut down.

Instead, the analyst, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the activity, found that ships were still passing through the strait and traffic had increased to about 15 ships per day in recent days. The company’s report was published on Substack. Although the flow is well below normal levels, it indicates that the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute.

“Tankers pass four or five a day, complete darkness on the AIS. They said the volume is higher than the data suggests and has been accelerating over the last few days through the Qeshm channel,” Citrini’s post said. he said.

AIS is a ship tracking system that broadcasts a ship’s position, speed, identity and heading. Citrini suggests that the actual shipping volume is higher than reported data because many ships turn off their transponders and do not appear in official tracking systems.

Citrini did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Based on the Substack post, the analyst’s interviews with fishermen, smugglers and regional officials point to a system in which Iran selectively allows ships to pass. Citrini said in his post that tankers must receive approval before passing through waters near Iranian territory, creating what the firm described as a “functional checkpoint” rather than a blockade.

“This should reveal that what we describe as our view on the conflict is nuanced; it does not neatly fit into ‘strait open crude down’ or ‘throat closed crude parabolic’,” the firm said.

Admittedly, the findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal accounts that are difficult to independently verify, especially given the limited transparency in the region.

The firm expects a longer outage that would impose a permanent risk premium on oil markets. This view supports the preference for longer-dated crude oil exposure, with the firm opting for December 2026 WTI contracts over the first month.

“We think this disruption will last longer and the new normal includes a permanent risk premium, but we will likely see as high as 50% of pre-conflict traffic in the next 4-6 weeks,” Citrini said.