ANDREW NEIL: Iran’s allies in Moscow and Beijing are cock-a-hoop. And I hear European and Gulf leaders are privately fuming at Trump’s folly

‘We won,’ President Trump said earlier this week.

Iranian missiles and drones continue to rain down on America’s beleaguered allies in the Gulf, Tehran’s Tyrants tighten their grip on domestic dissent, oil is pegged at around $100 per barrel (it was $60 before America and Israel began bombing Iran), and cargo ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz are being destroyed, confirming that the Iranian regime has a firm grip on the global economy’s throat.

If this is how the President evaluates victory, you wonder what he thinks defeat will be like. Yes, the regime suffered a huge blow. Battered and bruised.

How could it be otherwise when the US and Israel claim to have hit 15,000 targets? Its leadership was decapitated, its repressive infrastructure was destroyed, its missile stocks were depleted, its navy sank, its nuclear bomb ambitions once again receded. But here’s the problem: It’s still standing, it’s still working, it’s still retaliating, it’s still in control of the streets and the Bosphorus.

America claims that the new Supreme Leader (the son of the former leader killed in the first Israeli bombardment) was probably seriously injured. But he is still well-positioned to demand that America meet some tough preconditions before Iran agrees to a ceasefire. It’s as if Tehran is mocking Trump.

The regime is gambling that if it can raise the cost of oil and gas to high prices for a long enough period of time (given that this will lead to higher prices and job losses in the world’s major economies), then Trump will soon declare victory and go home (as he always does, regardless of the facts).

An oil tanker that was hit by an Iranian attack at the Khor al-Zubair port near the Iraqi city of Basra burned.

He thinks Trump can withstand adversity more easily than enduring the economic and political pain of rising energy prices in a critical election year.

Of course, Tehran is in no position to dictate terms to America. But Washington isn’t full of viable options either. It can attack another 15,000 targets. So is this really a game changer? There comes a point when bombardment becomes subject to the law of diminishing returns. We may already be there.

Hawks in Washington are proposing the occupation of Kharg Island, where most of Iran’s oil exports originate, to cut off the revenues that keep the regime afloat; and occupying the Iranian coastline north of the Strait of Hormuz is a necessary first step in reopening the chokepoint.

Both moves would be classic mission creep, casebook upgrades that include boots on the ground. It would take weeks, if not months, to assemble the necessary forces. This would risk another ‘endless war’ which would greatly repel Trump’s Maga base. I doubt the president will sign either.

So what does he do instead? Those around him understand that military success does not necessarily translate into political success. Eliminating an enemy’s ability to wage war does not guarantee better governance.

Of course, the White House is full of slow learners; because this was already the lesson learned from Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. And now in Iran.

No matter how collapsed the government in Tehran is, the prospect of regime change remains as remote as ever. Israeli officials privately admit that Iran’s ruling elite – a combination of medieval mullahs and Revolutionary Guard thugs – is unlikely to be overthrown any time soon, and the chances of a popular uprising are slim.

But Washington is also beginning to realize that an end to hostilities that leaves the current regime in place is the worst possible outcome. For a start, this means that the Islamic Republic, no matter how battered, will drive out the Great Satan. It could survive to threaten its neighbors in the Gulf—America’s allies—again in the coming years, whenever the mood changed.

A foreign tanker carrying Iraqi fuel was damaged after unidentified attacks targeted two foreign tankers near Basra, according to Iraqi port officials.

Of course, the White House is full of slow learners; because this was already the lesson learned from Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. And now Iran

If you really want to understand how this war is going, just look at the situation of America and Iran’s respective allies. Gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) are in despair. Their chances of regaining their reputation for safety and security while the regime in Tehran remains intact are slim to none. Some Gulf leaders are currently pondering how to achieve peace with Tehran.

European leaders are no less distraught. A war without a real purpose or plausible outcome risks plunging already stagnant economies into recession once again, fueling social unrest, and fanning the flames of extremists on the Left and Right. A source told me that European and Gulf leaders are now making phone calls ‘privately outraged’ at Trump’s actions.

I hear some European countries are trying to ‘create an India’ and are negotiating directly with Iran to remove some tankers from the Gulf.

Britain, of course, suffered visible collateral damage, emerging like a paper tiger struggling to deploy even a warship to defend our bases in Cyprus.

On the contrary, Iran’s allies are the exact opposite. Iranian oil still reaches China through the Strait of Hormuz, which is suspected of secretly aiding Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Beijing is happy to have America’s attention elsewhere as it continues to pressure Taiwan. But Russia is the biggest winner of all. Just as the treasury coffers were drying up and even the sovereign wealth fund was running out of liquid assets to cover the war in Ukraine, the rise in oil and gas prices proved to be a great and unexpected boon. It generates up to $150 million a day in extra tax revenue from oil sales; this is a windfall totaling up to £2bn since the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz; There will be much more to come if energy prices remain high.

No wonder Russia is providing Iran with intelligence, including satellite imagery and drone targeting, to help Tehran attack the United States and its allies in the region.

Oddly, even Trump is helping out: In an effort to stop oil prices from spiraling out of control, the US Treasury is easing sanctions to allow the market to buy Russian oil cargoes already at sea. There is no doubt that President Putin is grateful to his old friend in the White House.

China and India are the main beneficiaries. Both have increased their imports of Russian oil by more than 20 percent in the week since the attacks on Iran began, filling the Kremlin’s coffers in the process.

India is also dealing directly with Iran: It is negotiating with Tehran to allow at least 23 tankers loaded with oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with their first passage expected this weekend.

It looks like the only losers in Trump’s war against Iran are America’s allies. So much so that European governments are now considering postponing the upcoming ban on Russian LNG due to the inability of gas from Qatar to leave the Gulf. Bang would spend years trying to isolate Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Another victory from Putin

In reality, little lasting benefit has been achieved so far from the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Israel gained a short-term gain from further hindering the regime that sought to destroy it. But there is no long-term advantage for America yet.

When Trump deposed Venezuela’s dictator at the beginning of the year and cracked down on Cuba’s communist commissars, there was hope that 2026 would be the year the world’s autocrats would step down for the first time this century. Iran would be the biggest prize.

But Trump went to war with no clear end game in sight and with the (always fallible) arrogance that you can lift an entrenched regime from 35,000 feet. Of course, when it comes to Trump, you can never rule out the unexpected: that he might pull a giant rabbit out of the hat. But for now, it’s the autocrats who are celebrating.

Once again we run the risk of the 21st century being their time; As democracies decline, we risk becoming the future. If this is truly the sad, geopolitical outcome of Trump’s misadventure in Iran, then Trump will have made a miscalculation of historic proportions from which his reputation will never recover.