Andy Burnham has plan to return to Westminster ‘within weeks’, allies say | Labour

Andy Burnham has a credible plan to return to Westminster “within weeks” and the Greater Manchester mayor is expected to use the by-election fight to set a new agenda for the government, his allies have said.

Burnham, whose candidacy was blocked by Labour’s ruling body in February’s Gorton and Denton byelection, has identified several seats that MPs are prepared to cede for her leadership bid.

Burnham’s team is understood to have identified an “impressive” candidate to replace him as mayor of Greater Manchester, in a sign that his campaign is further along than previously thought.

Allies have said they plan to outline a “radical restructuring” of the state in the coming weeks, including sweeping changes to the electoral system and a 10-year growth plan, following potentially devastating elections on May 7 that could end Keir Starmer’s premiership.

After two weeks of fighting for Starmer’s political future over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, the number of MPs backing Burnham is understood to have grown to far more than the 80 needed to challenge the prime minister.

But his supporters said they hoped to avoid a formal leadership fight and engineer a process by which Starmer would set a timetable for his withdrawal immediately after votes for Scottish and Welsh parliaments and councils across England next week.

MPs discussed the possibility of Burnham offering Starmer the chance to remain foreign secretary and continue working on the Iran war and Ukraine. Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner, another leadership rival, are expected to be offered senior roles in Burnham’s government.

Burnham, who has given a series of policy speeches to ideologically aligned think tanks in recent weeks, is said to be preparing a clear government program to be announced in the possible parliamentary by-election campaign. A number of possible seats have been identified in Greater Manchester and Merseyside.

Commitments backed by former health secretary Burnham include the introduction of proportional representation across the UK, a 10-year plan for local services and an overhaul of inheritance tax to pay for the social care system.

An “impressive” non-MP candidate is understood to be lined up to contest the mayoral election, which will be triggered if he is allowed to stand as an MP.

Manchester city council leader Bev Craig is a frontrunner and is not ruling herself out of the contest. Craig declined to comment when contacted by the Guardian.

Supporters of other candidates who could challenge the leadership – Wes Streeting and Rayner – are said to have 80 MPs ready to support their candidates to urgently challenge Starmer.

But Burnham supporters said they hoped to persuade the prime minister of the need for a more stable transition rather than a bloody leadership race, which they hoped would give the man dubbed the “king of the north” time to return.

“There are very strong odds that this will happen within a few weeks, but certainly over the months and summer,” said an ally of Burnham.

Starmer is unlikely to play any role in facilitating Burnham’s return and the pair are not on good terms. Members of Labour’s national executive committee, which blocked Burnham from standing in Gorton and Denton, told the Guardian it was not possible for the mayor to reach them through that committee.

Some of Burnham’s allies are believed to be trying to persuade union general secretaries to change their views, with Unison a prime target. Others, such as GMB, refused to back Burnham because of her closeness to Miliband, who is at loggerheads with the union over oil and gas licences.

An ally of Burnham said: “It’s clear he’s the man best placed to turn Labor around.

“He has popularity in terms of voting, personality and plan – this will become more evident on the other side of May 7, when there will be more depth on how to replicate and scale Manchesterism across the country. “A broader policy plan will come out the other side. [of the elections].”

But one MP who supports Burnham said there was a lack of coordination between different groups that could support her, including impatient modernizers and “red wall” or Blue Labor MPs.

“Andy’s great potential lies in the coalitions he can form,” another MP said. “His test will be whether he can go beyond a core. [the soft-left] The Tribune group that really didn’t want Angela [Rayner].

“This kind of unification is what we need to show that we are different from the conservatives, that we will not be dragged into months of bloodshed and chaos.”

One MP from the party’s right said: “I can get behind Andy but I need to hear from him why someone like me should support him.”

Elections to the national executive committee, which some in Westminster argue could tip things in Burnham’s favour, will not come into force until after the Labor Party conference in the autumn and are unlikely to tip the balance significantly.

New polling shows that just one in 10 voters believe Starmer should remain prime minister after the May election if predictions are correct that the party will lose more than 1,850 councilors – 75% of the seats it defends.

The poll, conducted in Portland, found that Burnham is seen as the politician most likely to be “strong and decisive,” competent to get things done and who truly understands the lives of ordinary people.

But the poll found people preferred Starmer as a politician with a clearer vision of the country and someone who was honest about compromises. But each politician’s scores were extremely low compared to the number of survey respondents who chose the “none” option.