Becerra leads governor’s race; Hilton, Steyer in tight contest for second spot

As the June 2 primary election for California governor approaches, voters are tightly divided between three candidates vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom at a dangerous moment in the state and nation’s history, according to a poll released Thursday.

25 percent of California voters support Democrat and former Biden Cabinet secretary Xavier Becerra, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. Former Fox News commentator and British political strategist Steve Hilton, a Republican, had 21 percent support, while environmental activist Tom Steyer, the billionaire hedge fund founder, was a Democrat with 19 percent support.

The survey provided the clearest indication yet that the three have distinguished themselves from the rest of the field. Support for Becerra, Hilton and Steyer has increased since the last Berkeley IGS poll in March. Becerra went ahead of everyone else. He tumbled to the bottom of the pack with just 5% support among likely voters in early March and is now a front-runner.

Other candidates floundered. Support for Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco fell 5%, and Bianco now ranks fourth. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine dropped by nearly half to 7%. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Supt. Public Instruction’s Tony Thurmond (all Democrats) remained mired in single digits.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo warned that it remains unclear which candidates will finish first and second in the June 2 primary elections; This is a crucial question as only the top two candidates will participate in the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. Low voter turnout so far makes predicting the outcome particularly difficult.

Although every registered voter in California received a mail ballot, many did not return their ballots or drop them off at polling places; This is a clear sign of the uncertain nature of this year’s governor’s race. DiCamillo said the survey, which included all 61 gubernatorial candidates on the ballot, found that Democratic turnout so far has been noticeably lower than in past primaries.

California’s Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton arrives for a press conference at San Jose Diridon Station in San Jose, California, USA, on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is announcing his intention to withhold future taxpayer-funded payments for California’s High-Speed ​​Rail project if elected in November.

(Jason Henry/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“We’re assuming the Democrats will actually turn out in the final week after we complete our poll and start laying the groundwork on what appears to be an early lead for Hilton, and those voters will go for Becerra,” DiCamillo said.

The poll, conducted between May 19 and 24, found that Democratic voters were most likely to prefer Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points. Voters registered as “no party preference” were evenly split between Becerra, Steyer and Hilton. Among likely Republican voters, Hilton led Bianco nearly 2 to 1.

Becerra also had a significant lead over Steyer among women and Latino voters, while Steyer had an advantage among Black voters. Hilton was favored over the two Democrats among self-described libertarians and voters in Orange County, the Central Valley, the north shore and the Sierra region.

The survey revealed that 7 percent of voters were undecided.

For the first time in more than a quarter-century, the contest to lead the nation’s most populous state and the world’s fourth-largest economy lacks a consistent leader despite a host of candidates.

Two of California’s best-known Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, struggled to run for governor before deciding not to run, contributing to the race’s stagnation. The 2026 gubernatorial campaign also languishes in the shadow of the turmoil incited by President Trump, immigration raids in Southern California and the devastation wrought by the 2025 Pacific Palisades and Altadena fires.

However, recent developments have drawn attention to the race.

Former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin), once a front-runner in the contest, withdrew from the race and resigned from Congress following multiple allegations of sexual harassment and assault, which he denied.

Democratic California gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer during a campaign event on Wednesday, May 27, 2026 in Santa Rosa, California, United States. California holds its primary elections on June 2. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

(Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Additionally, record amounts of money poured into the race. Steyer broke the state’s self-funding record by contributing $212 million to his campaign on Tuesday, according to the California secretary of state’s office. Nearly $85 million was donated to independent spending committees by corporations, labor unions, tech giants, Native American tribes and other special interest groups; Many of these will have policy interests that will be before the next governor.

While the 2026 California governor’s race lacks the glamor of recent contests featuring candidates such as global movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, political leader Jerry Brown and former San Francisco mayor and likely 2028 presidential candidate Gavin Newsom, it is unfolding at a crucial time for Californians.

The state’s most vulnerable residents face severe cuts to medical care due to looming federal health care funding cuts, and California’s budget, already precarious due to its dependence on the state’s wealthiest residents, could become even more unpredictable. California’s gas prices, which are among the highest in the country, have been exacerbated by the US-Iran war; This has further compounded the state’s entrenched affordability crisis, which has led many residents to move out of state.

According to the survey, the top concerns voiced by voters include the cost of living, homelessness and public safety. Protecting voting rights was also supported by most voters; However, their main concerns may be completely different depending on their political views.

Democrats focused on voter disenfranchisement; That fear has been compounded following the Supreme Court’s recent decision striking down a section of the Voting Rights Act that forced states to draw voting districts to help elect Black or Latino representatives to Congress. Republicans are repeating President Trump’s claims that the election was rigged.

Los Angeles, CA – May 06, 2026: Chad Bianco is interviewed following the California Governorship debate at the Skirball Cultural Center on Wednesday, May 6, 2026 in Los Angeles, California.

(Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times)

Voters were divided largely along party lines on issues such as Trump’s policies on climate change, immigration and taxes.

Voters’ uncertainty in the governor’s race stems in part from California’s unique, voter-approved “jungle” primary system; where the two candidates who received the most votes in the June 2 primary election advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation.

Although the vast majority of voters in the state are registered Democrats, the party’s leaders feared earlier this year that the vote would be split among multiple Democrats, leading to Hilton and Bianco joining the November general election and a Republican being elected governor. Bianco had 11% support in Berkeley’s new poll.

Republicans were roughly tied in the polls until Trump endorsed Hilton in April. More than a third of Republican voters said Trump’s endorsement of Hilton made them more likely to support him. Nearly two-thirds of voters who embrace the “Make America Great Again” movement backed Hilton, while less than 3 in 10 backed Bianco.

While Bianco’s followers appear to be more passionate, DiCamillo said, “Hilton has a much broader base of support, and then she got Trump’s support.”

He added that Hilton’s rise is unusual in California, where statewide candidates often spend large amounts of money to increase their visibility among the state’s 23.1 million registered voters.

“The interesting thing about Hilton is that he hasn’t done a lot of his campaigns in traditional ways. He hasn’t run a lot of television ads, you don’t see his name in traditional media other than free media,” DiCamillo said. “You can see that in the data, because almost a third of voters still have no opinion on Hilton… about what happened in March, which is surprising for a candidate who is among the frontrunners.”

Democrats’ fears of not qualifying for the November general election led party leaders and their allies to effectively call on low-ballot candidates to drop out of the race in eye-catching public statements in March.

The situation has changed since then; While two Republicans appear unlikely to win the top spot in the June primaries, polls show a small chance of two Democrats winning the general election.

“I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s possible that two Democrats could emerge, and that would have huge impacts on voter turnout.” [November] Pointing to California congressional races that could shape control of the U.S. House of Representatives, DiCamillo said: “If we don’t have a Republican at the top of the ticket, it’s bleak for Republicans’ chances.”

The poll of 8,578 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points in either direction.