Zebras, wealth and power: Hungary’s election tests Orbán’s grip on power | Viktor Orbán

Drone footage showed a spacious residence in northern Hungary, complete with manicured gardens, a swimming pool and an underground garage. But what came next was what captured much of the country’s imagination: zebras zipping through the countryside.

Ownership caught on camera Owned by the father of the country’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, and like many others in Hungary, it offers a glimpse into the staggering wealth amassed by his inner circle become poor. References to zebras from a neighboring property owned by Lőrinc Mészáros, Orbán’s best friend and Hungary’s richest man, soon began appearing across the country; Plush toys were sold at protests, people posted videos of their own walks to spot the animals, and photos of zebras were posted on government billboards.

“They have become a symbol of the unlimited corruption in the entire system,” said Hungarian independent MP Ákos Hadházy, who organized a series of “safari tours” to the region in protest last autumn.

These protests were just part of a growing opposition movement that puts Orbán in danger of being ousted after 16 years in power.

The scope of that move will be revealed on Sunday, when Hungarians vote in what is seen as the most important election since the country’s transition to democracy in 1990.

Most polls suggest that Orbán and his Fidesz party, which has turned Hungary into a “petri dish for liberalism,” could lose power, shaking up global far-right movements and reshaping Hungary’s adversarial relationship with the EU. But opposition supporters fear that polls underestimate support for Fidesz or that Orbán will find a way to retain power even if he loses the election.

“Hungary is once again at a historical turning point,” said Anita Orbán of the opposition Tisza party, which has shaken up the race and is now leading in most polls. “This moment carries powerful echoes of the past.”

The election took place 23 years after Hungarians voted overwhelmingly to join the European Union. Anita Orbán, who is no relation to the prime minister, said on social media: “Now, once again, on April 12, voters not only choose between parties, but also decide the direction, identity and future of Hungary.” “In many ways, this election is a referendum on whether Hungary will return to European values.”

It was a hint of how much has changed in Hungary since Orbán came to power in 2010. Although it was a coup against lawyers that avoided tanks and cronyism, the developments that followed were nothing more than “a coup in slow motion”, as Zoltán Kész, a former member of the Fidesz party, put it.

The right-wing populist government had used its time in office to steadily reduce the checks and balances that constrained its power: rewriting electoral laws to its advantage, maneuvering to place an estimated 80% of the country’s media under loyalists’ control, and reorganizing the country’s judiciary.

“We have reached a point in Hungary where we can no longer talk about a real democracy,” Kész said. “There’s really a state capture going on in Hungary of all the so-called independent institutions. Whether it’s the courts or the public services, they’ve basically been taken over by one party.”

From the university professor who lost his job after speaking out against the government, to music venues closed after hosting artists supporting the opposition, to journalists whose newsrooms became government mouthpieces overnight after a change of ownership, Hungarians readily shared on the streets and at dining room tables how this played out in practice.

Kész said that while the Hungarian economy was growing, many people did not pay much attention to what was going on. But as inflation rises after With Russia’s large-scale occupation of Ukraine and the onset of economic stagnation, there were rumblings about the growing disconnect between ordinary Hungarians and the ruling class.

Péter Magyar, a former member of Fidesz’s inner circle, also began speaking in this context. As he branded himself as a defender of Hungarians and accused Orbán’s party of siphoning state funds, corruption rose to the top of voters’ concerns and Magyar’s hastily founded party rose to the top of the polls.

Magyar’s leadership continued as the government sought to ban Pride events and toughen its long-standing crackdown on independent media and NGOs.

What Magyar is facing is seen everywhere in Hungary: ubiquitous billboards created with artificial intelligence and paid for by the government, depicting him as a danger to the country and a stooge of both the EU and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The result, as one Hungarian news outlet noted, was a campaign that pitted fear against hope. noted this week. Orbán, whose government did not respond to an interview request, has tried to convince voters that Hungary’s biggest risk is war in Ukraine, portraying himself as the only leader who can keep the peace. Magyar, by contrast, has vowed to fight corruption by focusing on domestic issues, transfer funds to long-neglected public services and repair the country’s strained relations with the EU.

A two-minute video published in January made clear the huge role elections will play on the world stage in a country of fewer than 10 million people that produces 1.1% of the EU’s GDP.

Nearly a dozen right-wing leaders, from Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Matteo Salvini to France’s Marine Le Pen, have supported Orbán and praised the path he has paved in Hungary. “Europe needs Viktor Orbán,” Alice Weidel, co-chair of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), tells viewers in the video.

The extent of Orbán’s influence was revealed this week when JD Vance landed in Budapest with his wife Usha. While campaigning with Orbán, the US vice president echoed much of Fidesz’s campaign strategy, railing against the EU and taking shots at Ukraine. Donald Trump on Friday sent : “I AM ALWAYS BY HIM!”.

“I think the symbol of Orbán’s loss should not be underestimated,” said German Greens lawmaker Daniel Freund, who has long sounded the alarm about democratic backsliding in Hungary. “He is the absolute poster child for this whole illiberal, anti-European, far-right movement. He is the symbol and example that others follow.”

Dalibor Roháč, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Vance’s visit was the result of years of precision targeting by Orbán. After Orbán’s allies held him up as a model for Trump and others, the Hungarian government allegedly spent millions of euros on US lobbyists and tasked them with selling that narrative in Washington.

His efforts soon bore fruit; People like Kevin Roberts, president of the US Heritage Foundation think tank that produced Project 2025, have described Hungary as a model for conservative statecraft, and Roháč said, “Orbán has continued to invest in those relationships and bring people here.”

In the words of a local journalist, Budapest quickly became the center of think tanks and conferences aimed at strengthening the idea of ​​Hungary. “Christian conservative Disneyland” where the global far right feels at home.

Global respect continued even as a country Dropped in press freedom rankingsfacing accusations that it is no longer a full democracyand it happened The most corrupt country in the EU.

As Orbán’s government grew closer to Vladimir Putin and became more dependent on crude oil, Budapest served as a nexus between Washington and Moscow and offered Maga a jumping-off point for exporting Christian nationalist and far-right ideology to the rest of Europe.

Vance’s visit was an indication of this. Despite making headlines around the world, there is no sign that Orbán is strengthening his position.

Instead, momentum appeared to be building for Magyar. On Thursday evening, his supporters filled the central streets of Györ in northwestern Hungary. Images of Hungarian flags led to comparisons with a rally held in the same town in March; Orbán attacked the demonstrators who booed him, accusing them of being pro-Ukrainian.

This confidence overshadows the uncertainty that has persisted throughout the campaign, as it is anyone’s guess as to whether the opposition’s rise will be enough to unseat Fidesz. Although polls suggest Tisza will win, undecided voters and Hungarians abroad could still influence the outcome, as can vote-buying and gerrymandering allegations already swirling.

Many people in the small city of Kecskemét, about 50 miles south of Budapest, said the campaign had done little to endear them to the Magyar. Expressing the fear that Hungary would be dragged into the war in Ukraine, 81-year-old Katalin said, “There is visible anxiety among people.” “I don’t think the Ukrainian people want war, but their leaders may.”

This thought made 83-year-old Zsuzci tremble with fear. “At this point we can only pray,” he said. “I pray to protect Christian Hungary. If Péter Magyar wins, we will be dragged into the war in Ukraine and he will accept immigrants; he is doing the same thing the European Union tells him to do.”

Whatever the outcome, Kész said it was clear that Sunday’s vote marked the beginning of a broader reckoning over Hungary’s move towards liberalism. “Under normal circumstances, you lose the election, what happens? You join the opposition, you come back four years later. This is a normal democracy, but this is not normal.”

During Fidesz’s 16 years in power, the party has packed the state, media and judiciary with loyalists, suggesting that even if Orbán loses, its system can withstand him.

“Even under ideal circumstances, change will not happen overnight,” he said. “If you look at the state of the education system, if you look at the state of health care, if you look at the state of the courts, if you look at the public services, you name it, they have to be rebuilt from the ground up. A new government has a lot of work to do.”