Carlton’s third-quarter capitulation against St Kilda by the numbers
Carlton coach Michael Voss faces an almost impossible task to save his job after the Blues’ late second-half defeat against St Kilda on Saturday night resulted in a seventh defeat in eight games.
A one-eighth capitulation in the third quarter against the Saints exposed the problems that have plagued Voss all year, including three-quarter victories over Melbourne, North Melbourne and Collingwood.
Opponents have outscored Carlton, who have a league-worst 117 points in the third term this season, ahead of bottom team Richmond only on percentage, and have won that quarter just twice.
Voss is out of contract at the end of the season after surviving a club-wide review late last year, but the Blues’ horror campaign gives the former Brisbane Lions champion little hope of staying on as manager, even if he is reluctant to speculate on his future.
“This is a familiar pattern,” Voss said.
“Center square bounce [failures]Four or five free kicks against us… and then his ability to continue defending when we are against us is not at the level it should be.
“It puts you under a lot of pressure, they score goals when they want and we make huge runs against us.
“Defensively, we weren’t strong enough for long enough throughout the game.”
Where it all begins
There was no visible sign of what was to come from Carlton in the opening minutes of the third quarter on Saturday night.
In fact, the Blues were spreading the field and moving the ball with relative ease, but managed to come from just three down to take a 15-point lead.
Brad Hill’s goal with more than seven minutes left in the period caused a huge wave.
St Kilda’s Anthony Caminiti contested an aerial pass with Harry Dean flying back and Jacob Weitering running in behind, then more desperate than Blue to collect Sherrin at ground level and distribute to Mitch Owens.
Suddenly, gaps appeared everywhere. Owens found Max Hall, who passed the ball to Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and the silky Aziz kicked out to Cooper Sharman in acres of space.
Sharman then flew to an unguarded Hill and started the rot.
Commenting on Fox Footy, Jack Riewoldt said: “There was a collapse in Carlton’s defence… [that] forced St Kilda to overlap due to poor defence.”
Ball loss and bounce problems from the center
Structural problems and a lack of accountability plagued the Blues in the carnage that followed, but abysmal turnovers and the midfielders’ inability to compete centrally did not help the defenders’ cause.
Carlton lost eight of their nine center clearances at the height of the damage.
As for turnovers, Nic Newman in time slotted a pass over Will Hayward’s head and straight to Callum Wilkie on attack.
Adam Cerra also gave Hill a poor lift for a handball, which led to the Saints’ seventh goal. Cerra soon signaled from the wing and slotted a low ball into the arms of Sam Flanders with no Blue nearby.
Sam Walsh was similarly sloppy. He was cut out for a handball by Jack Sinclair, who then darted out from the center and mistimed a shot which signaled Wilkie’s fourth tackle.
St Kilda’s Max Hall scored a great winner against Carlton captain Patrick Cripps, catching him holding the ball in a great tackle; St Kilda took advantage to rush towards Mason Wood, who did not mark Sherrin but had time to recover, mount his left boot and score.
It was the Saints’ 11th major and they were suddenly 22 points ahead after falling behind by 15 points less than 20 minutes earlier. Riewoldt’s fellow commentator David King was very harsh.
“They can’t win a competition on the back foot and there is a clear lack of leadership,” King said.
“We didn’t even see Cripps take a single shot, Cerra turned the ball over in the quarter and Walsh’s disposals were disgraceful.”
feeling the blues
- The Blues have won just two of eight third quarters this season.
- In those eight games, they fell behind by 117 points in the third term; this is the worst record in the AFL. That includes a league-worst deficit of 68 in the ongoing period of those quarters.
- Defensively, two of Carlton’s worst third quarters in the last five years have come in 2026. They conceded 75 points against Sydney in the first round and 52 against St Kilda in the eighth round.
- The Blues made just 40 tackles against St Kilda, their second lowest this season (only 38 against Sydney).
- The Blues have conceded six or more goals in all matches this season, six times in a row; This is on par with the West Coast for most in the AFL.
Source: Champion Data
double target
Dean is in his first AFL season but had a forgettable moment amid the slump.
Dean and the Blues’ backline struggled to resist St Kilda’s forward moves.
At one stage Owens slid towards a group of players to take a shot and the ball bounced behind, but Hugo Garcia casually ran onto the ball with no one near him and handballed it over the top of Liam Henry, who scored from goal.
But what made matters worse was Dean’s reckless and dangerous decision to push Henry into the back and crash Saint into the Marvel Stadium fence.
Henry took a free kick and scored another goal. St Kilda’s lead instantly increased from four points to 16.
Much of the problem lay in this passage: Carlton’s defenders were regularly falling behind in contests and the Saints’ forwards were often several meters clear when marked inside the 50.
The worst example was when Cripps gave away a free kick from the center to Wanganeen-Milera. St Kilda got inside the 50 again against Wood, who “belly-bellied” Wood’s attempt to shoot at goal, but former Blue Tom De Koning somehow left his undisputed mark on the chest in the middle of the pack.
It wasn’t a great half-hour for Weitering, who gave away free kicks, lost aerial contests and was uncharacteristically out of position several times.
Carlton conceded 9.4 points from 16 out of 50 in a nightmare period from the end of the second quarter.
They are the only club to score 50 or more points in a quarter three times this season and are one of only two teams (the other being the West Coast) to give up six streaks of more than six goals.
There is no respite in sight as two-time premiership holders Brisbane await the Blues on Friday night.
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