Carolina Boom: Why Red States are Winning the Migration War as Blue Cities Shrink

The Carolinas are experiencing a population boom resulting from a combination of high-paying job opportunities, relative affordability and an influx of retirees, according to a recent report. report From economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics.

The report emphasizes that “Carolina migration is driven by job opportunities, affordability and retirees,” noting that the region’s diverse employment landscape and low cost of living create a strong draw for those living in more expensive coastal centers.

North Carolina sees the highest net domestic migration of all states in 2023, while South Carolina recently became the fastest-growing state in the country by percentage. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the Palmetto State’s population grew by 1.7%, significantly outpacing the national average and fueled by a net inflow of more than 82,000 domestic immigrants.

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“Population growth has occurred across age groups, with young professionals moving into skilled jobs in major cities and older people turning to retirement options in coastal metropolises,” the Oxford researchers explained.

Charlotte remains the Carolinas’ heavy hitter. A net number of 225,500 people migrated to the city, which is the largest city of the region and an important financial center, in the last five years.

Raleigh, the capital of North Carolina and the cornerstone of the “Research Triangle,” followed closely behind as the second most popular metro. The city is expected to see a net inflow of 143,000 residents between 2021 and 2025. Other notable achievements include:

• Greenville, South Carolina: 83,500 net entries
• Myrtle Beach, South Carolina: 82,000 net entries

The main catalyst behind this movement is housing costs. Despite significant price increases over the past decade, the Carolinas remain cheap compared to the West Coast.

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Charlotte, North Carolina, the largest city in the Carolinas, had the highest level of net migration in the last five years, with a net 225,500 people moving out. (iStock)

The “home price-to-income ratio,” a key measure of affordability, sits at 4.8 in Charlotte and 4.4 in Raleigh. Both figures are below the national average of 5.0 and a fraction of the costs in major West Coast metros like San Francisco or Los Angeles, where the rate often exceeds 10.0.

The growth in these states comes as many traditionally blue states struggle to return to pre-pandemic population levels. Large cities such as Boston, New York, and Chicago show a consistent downward trend in net migration.

Los Angeles County was particularly hard hit. Accordingly US Census dataThe county’s population dropped from about 10 million in 2020 to about 9.7 million today. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, the county lost more than 56,000 residents.

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The U.S. Census Bureau’s March report highlighted a downward trend in population in the nation’s most populous counties, including Los Angeles, Cook County (Chicago), Harris County (Houston), and the five boroughs of New York City. (Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)

“The nation’s largest counties are often centers of international migration,” said Census Bureau demographer George M. Hayward. “With the decline in gains from international migration, population growth in such districts has decreased or even turned into losses.”

As the Carolinas continue to invest in infrastructure and attract major corporate relocations, experts expect the “Sun Belt” migration trend to remain a dominant force in American demographics through the remainder of the decade.

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