Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can ‘imagine a future without him’ — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets

Russians are beginning to accept that President Vladimir Putin has led the country into a tailspin and is unable to shape its future, according to a former senior Kremlin official.

recently Economist column In the anonymous piece, the former official noted that his fellow government officials, regional governors and businessmen in Moscow had stopped using the first-person plural pronoun when describing Putin’s actions.

In other words, Russia’s elites have found a subtle way to no longer show solidarity with Putin and explain what “he” is doing rather than what “we” are doing.

This shift occurred last spring, but does not signal an imminent uprising, the former official added, because the state still controls the primary tools of repression and fear.

At the same time, the regime stopped bothering to sell a narrative of national restoration or modernization to the rest of the country, which had lost enormous amounts of blood and treasure on the Ukrainian battlefields.

“The irony is that Mr. Putin started the war to preserve power and the system he created,” the official wrote. “Now, for the first time since the conflict began, Russians are beginning to imagine a future without him.”

As Russians grapple with higher inflation, more taxes, crumbling infrastructure, tighter censorship and countless new restrictions, the rising costs of Putin’s war against Ukraine have contributed to the country’s transformation.

High inflation also kept interest rates high. While companies and other debtors are having difficulty paying their debts, defaults increased and warnings about the financial crisis multiplied.

Another factor is the opposition of Russian elites, who are banned from living abroad and have lost the protection of Western laws that protect their wealth.

The former official estimates that the state has seized about $60 billion in assets from private businessmen in the past three years, either by outright expropriating their property or by redistributing it to their cronies.

“It’s not like elites have suddenly discovered a taste for the rule of law or democracy,” he said in the op-ed. “But even those loyal to the regime need rules and institutions that can resolve conflicts fairly.”

Meanwhile, as the rules-based global order weakens, Russia cannot game the system much by exploiting institutions such as the United Nations Security Council. The decline of the West also means that Russia is losing its edge, creating an identity crisis.

Finally, the former official added, Russia’s previous social contract, which allowed citizens to enjoy their private lives as long as they stayed out of politics, had collapsed.

Instead of providing convenience, service and consumption, the regime only imposes repression, intrusion and censorship.

“People need to be loyal without being told what kind of future loyalty serves,” the official said.

The Kremlin’s internet blackouts have caused uproar among ordinary Russians as the regime tries to limit information about Ukraine’s economic woes and rising deaths.

And the country’s disconnect from the regime comes as Putin distances himself from public life. literally retreat to a shelter.

He spends more time micromanaging his war in underground bunkers, becoming paranoid about a coup or assassination attempt by Ukrainian drones. sources told Finance Times.

A person who knew him said F.T. Putin devotes 70 percent of his day to war and 30 percent to other tasks, including the economy.

Swamp and stubborn inflation in Ukraine I focused on emotion. Even a survey by Russia’s state-owned pollster showed Putin’s approval rating falling to 65.6 percent from 77.8 percent at the beginning of the year, well above the pre-war level of 80 percent.

“The system can continue to exist as long as Mr. Putin remains in power,” the former Russian official wrote. Economist. “But every move he makes to preserve and expand it accelerates the decay.”

This story first appeared on: Fortune.com