Futures point to muted start to last trading day of 2025 after US stocks waver
Damian J. Troise
The Australian share market is set for a quiet start on the final day of the year after US stocks fluctuated in light trading as investors assessed the Fed’s December meeting minutes as 2025 nears the finish line.
ASX futures were up 1 point at 8708 by 07:07 AEDT, following two days of modest declines in light holiday trade. The S&P/ASX is on track for a 6.3 per cent 200-year gain; This is its worst figure since its loss in 2022 and below the stock market performance of many other developed countries. The Australian dollar was trading at 66.96¢ as of 07.19 AEDT.
Wall Street’s S&P500 index is up more than 17 percent this year, while similar indices of the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, Canada and Hong Kong are up more than 20 percent, as is the global gauge known as the MSCI World Index. One of the few markets where the ASX200 was likely to outperform was New Zealand, where the NZ50 was up 3.1 per cent.
The ASX will close trading in the early hours of Wednesday, closing at 2.10pm (AEDT) on New Year’s Eve and remaining closed on New Year’s Day.
Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 was flat in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq composite fell 0.2 percent. Silver and gold rebounded after falling from all-time highs.
Other than the release of Fed meeting minutes, which show that most officials think further rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation declines over time as expected, there has been a general lack of significant catalysts to move markets this week, particularly as news flow and trading volumes have been muted.
Recordings of the US central bank’s most recent meeting have revealed divisions among its officials and how difficult it was for them to cut interest rates by a quarter point earlier this month. Some Fed officials have made clear they believe interest rates should remain steady “for some time” after the December meeting.
“Several of those who supported lowering the policy rate at this meeting stated that the decision was well balanced or that they would support keeping the target range unchanged,” the minutes said.
What the stock market needs next year is a dovish U.S. central bank, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group, said on Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.
“I joke that the stock market is like a kid in a candy store, braving the sugar high for more policy compliance, a more dovish Fed — but it doesn’t know what’s good for it,” he said. “The bond market is the adult in the room who takes the last lollipop.”
The biggest weight in the US market continued to be technology companies, especially those focused on developments in artificial intelligence. Nvidia fell 0.2 percent and Apple fell 0.5 percent. Both companies have huge valuations that have a greater overall impact on the broader direction of the market.
On the winning side, Facebook’s main Meta Platforms rose 1.9 percent. The company is acquiring AI startup Manus as it continues its aggressive efforts to increase AI offerings on its platforms. The California tech giant declined to disclose financial details of the acquisition. However Wall StreetJournal Meta reportedly closed the deal for over US$2 billion ($3 billion).
Markets were mixed in Asia and higher in Europe.
With only two trading days left until the end of the year, most large investors closed their positions and volume remained weak. Wall Street will also be closed on Thursday for New Year’s Eve.
The most striking movement was again experienced in commodity markets. Gold, silver and copper continued their rise after the sharp declines the day before.
The price of gold rose 1.1 percent and silver prices rose 9.5 percent after a drop Monday when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, one of the largest trading venues for commodities, asked investors to put more cash to bet on precious metals. Prices of both metals increased in 2025 due to economic concerns and supply shortfalls.
Copper rose 3.7 percent and was up more than 40 percent for the year, driven by strong demand. The base metal is critical to the global energy infrastructure, and demand is expected to continue growing as the advancement of AI technology puts greater pressure on data centers and the energy grid.
Crude oil prices remained relatively stable. The price of US crude oil was mostly unchanged. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, fell 0.1 percent.
In the bond market, treasury yields mostly rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.12 percent from 4.11 percent on Monday. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which moves closer to expectations of what the Federal Reserve will do, was steady at 3.45 percent.
Bond yields overall have fallen significantly throughout the year, in part due to market expectations that the Fed will change interest rate policy. The central bank has cut interest rates three times in late 2025, most recently at this month’s meeting.
With AP, AAP and Bloomberg
