How Ukraine broke through Russia’s air defenses

As the barrage of Ukrainian drones descends in moscow Russia’s response early Thursday looked more like a fight than a well-planned strategic defense. Videos shot from the streets of the capital showed glimpses of the chaos that ensued.

Footage verified by CNN and analyzed by experts shows soldiers firing portable, shoulder-mounted air defense systems on a busy highway as traffic carefully passes by. People run for safety when a drone, possibly shot down by Russian air defenses, crashes into a building in the sprawling marketplace.

Another video shows what appears to be a Russian defensive missile likely missing its target and hitting an oil storage tank on the outskirts of Moscow instead. A weapons expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute told CNN it was a “Russia own goal” that resulted in a mushroom-shaped cloud of smoke and the massive top of the tank shooting into the air.

Thursday’s attack on Moscow, the biggest since the start of all-out war, was another example of how Ukraine’s strategy of defeating Russian air defenses with drones is proving successful.

“Russia has a history of old systems not being 100% reliable,” Markus Schiller, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said of the mixed response from Moscow. Meanwhile, Ukraine is constantly improving itself. attack abilities “For years.”

Ukraine has been increasing its long-range attacks on Russian oil refineries and military facilities since 2024. Recently St. He broke through the Russian defenses in St. Petersburg and struck Moscow repeatedly. bring the war home To Russia’s two largest cities.

“The video showing the firing of portable air defense systems (MANPADS) on a busy highway is indicative of the hasty, ad hoc and frankly unprofessional response to the attack. The complete lack of traffic control and the use of military hardware incredibly close to civilian vehicles and persons reinforces this assessment,” said Stu Ray, senior analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services.

According to information provided by Ukrainian military sources to CNN, at the beginning of the conflict, Russia concentrated its air defense systems on the Ukrainian border and on the front line. But Kiev’s strategy was to target many different locations in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s occupied territories, forcing Russia to expand its air defenses to a more shabby fabric.

Kiev has been targeting radar detection systems as well as air defense launchers for years in an attempt to reduce Russia’s defensive capabilities. The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim to have destroyed 166 Russian “anti-air elements” since the beginning of this year, and more than 1,432 since the full-scale invasion begins in 2022.

Moreover, Russia’s air defense systems were not designed to combat drone attacks. They are designed to shoot down conventional military aircraft, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, according to Thomas Withington, a military science expert at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

“Russia’s air defense is not fit for purpose, that’s clear,” Withington told CNN. “They are not equipped to detect, track and act on this type of attack, and this will remain the case barring a major redesign of the Russian air defense system.”

Withington stated that international sanctions hinder Moscow’s ability to access the technology needed to develop new systems that can counter these attacks from Ukraine. “Even if you could increase production, you would increase production of missile systems that don’t even do the job,” he said.

Increasing drone threat forces Kremlin to take action Scale down the Victory Day parade On Red Square in May, no military equipment is on display – unlike previous events – due to what the Russian Ministry of Defense calls the “current operational situation”. Moscow also pressed for a temporary ceasefire during the festivities.

Still, experts say Russian air defenses likely shot down the bulk of Ukrainian drones. On Friday morning, the Russian military claimed that 216 Ukrainian drones were shot down across the country.

In his assessment of the air defense of the city of Moscow, Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Robert Brovdi said that as of mid-May, there were still more than 100 air defense launchers and more than 50 “Pantsir” mobile air defense systems in the Russian capital.

But since Ukraine has launched more than 100 UAVs in a single attack, it is likely that at least some of them will get past the defenses, even if they are well stocked.

Modern drones may also pass because they are harder to track than larger missiles or aircraft.

“They may show up on radar, but there’s a world of difference between detecting something on radar and getting what we call a ‘quality signature,'” Withington said.

And he said hundreds of UAVs coming from multiple directions required a large amount of coordination from Russia’s integrated air defense systems, which “did not happen properly.”

Ukraine’s repeated mass long-range attacks have led to speculation that Russia may also be running low on defensive ammunition. Experts warn that it is difficult to know what the country’s defensive missile stockpiles look like because this information is closely guarded. However, if Ukraine’s salvos are large and frequent, it is inevitable that stocks will decrease.

“In terms of the frequency and severity of Ukraine’s attacks on Russia, all options available to Russia are bad,” Withington said. “I think it’s a case of military thinking about what the least bad option is to counter the situation we face with Ukraine.”

CNN’s Victoria Butenko and Brad Lendon contributed to this report.

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