Here are the 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market this week
In a market hungry for economic data and concerned about AI trading, the S&P 500 enters the third week of November with a lead of just over 2% from its record close on Oct. 28. That’s not bad at all, considering how badly November started. There are three big things to watch this week: The first data sets since the end of the record-long government shutdown, minutes from the October meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers, and the biggest earnings report of the season. 1. Economic data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced late last week that it would release its September employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. The figures were planned to be announced on October 3, but were postponed when the government shut down two days ago. The BLS also said it will release September actual earnings at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Real earnings, which is the difference between the consumer price index and average hourly earnings, could not be calculated for September because the wage part of the equation was delayed. However, the CPI for September was announced on October 24. This was the only economic report released during the shutdown due to its role in calculating the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits. 2. Guessing game: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its October meeting, where central bankers cut interest rates by a quarter point. As Jim Cramer said at last week’s November Monthly Meeting for Club members, the guessing game on whether the Fed will cut interest rates by the third quarter point of the year at its December 9-10 meeting will intensify in the coming weeks. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that a rate cut in December was not certain. The market had its own ideas and still thought it was a lock. But lately, Fed officials have seemed concerned. And the market currently sees only a 46% chance of a rate cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. What has changed? Some Fed officials are worried about taking action before they see data on whether the shutdown has been delayed. Jim said there should be no debate: The Fed should cut interest rates next month because the economy has slowed and consumers are increasingly worried. 3. Earnings: Big week for retailers, Nvidia and three other Club names. Most S&P 500 companies have already released their quarterly numbers. So far, 82% of them have reported a positive earnings per share (EPS) surprise, and 76% have reported a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet. In the third quarter, the S&P 500’s annualized composite earnings per share were 13.1%. If that holds, it would mark the fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Home Depot is in first place this week, reporting earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday. Management’s 2026 interest rate environment and its effects on new home construction (linked to mortgage rates) and home renovation activity (linked to short-term HELOC or home equity line of credit rates) will be important to investors. Additionally, from a cost perspective, any update on tariffs will be significant. TJX Companies is due to report Wednesday morning. We continue to view TJX, the low-price retailer behind TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, as the winner of the holiday season. Cracks in consumer purchasing power are leading to an even greater focus on value, and that’s where TJX excels. With this in mind, we always want to know what management thinks about the availability of quality products ahead of the holiday shopping season. Nvidia’s most significant earnings report to the market will be released after the closing bell on Wednesday. While the club will provide a more in-depth preview next week, the focus beyond the reported numbers will be on referrals; specifically Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s comment that he has visibility of $500 billion in sales by the end of 2026. Statements about the production ramp of Nvidia’s next generation Rubin artificial intelligence chip will also be important. Palo Alto Networks is also expected to announce its quarterly results on Wednesday evening. The company’s so-called platformization strategy, which focuses on becoming a one-stop shop for all of a customer’s cybersecurity needs, appears to be working, according to the latest analyst channel checks. In addition to the numbers reported, comments on the government shutdown and whether there will be long-term effects beyond the current quarter will also be at the forefront. Additionally, we are also interested in the pending acquisition of identity security specialist CyberArk, whose shareholders voted to approve the sale last week. Next week Monday, November 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET: Empire State index (November) Tuesday, November 18 at 9:15 a.m. ET: Industrial production and capacity utilization (October) Before bell earnings: Home Depot (HD); Baidu (BIDU), PDD Holdings (PDD), Medtronic (MDT) Wednesday, Nov. 19 Before the bell: TJX Companies (TJX), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) 2 p.m. ET: Minutes from the October Fed meeting After the bell: Nvidia (NVDA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Thursday, Nov. 20 8:30 a.m. ET: Employment report (September) 8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed index (November) 10:00 AM ET: Existing home sales (October) 10:00 AM ET: NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index (November) Before the bell: Walmart (WMT), Bath & Body Works (BBWI) After the bell: Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST), Gap (GPS) Friday, November 21 8:30 AM ET: Real earnings (September) 9:45 a.m. ET: S&P Global PMIs (November) 10 a.m. ET: University of Michigan consumer confidence (November finale) Before the bell: BJ Wholesale Club (BJ) (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA, HD, TJX, PANW. See here for a full list of stocks.) As a CNBC subscriber, on the Investment Club with Jim Cramer before Jim makes a trade. You will receive a transaction alert. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trading alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable foundation’s portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he would wait 72 hours after issuing the trading alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH THE DISCLAIMERS. NO CIVIL OBLIGATIONS OR DUTIES EXIST OR SHALL BE RESULTING FROM YOUR RECEIVING ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULT OR PROFIT CAN BE GUARANTEED.
