How strong will Tropical Storm Melissa get and where will it go? See the timeline
Florida residents should follow closely Tropical Storm Melissa, It is expected to become a strong Category 4 hurricane, but current forecasts are Florida impact is low.
This forecast may change in the coming days. National Hurricane Center warns rapid concentration This looks likely for Melissa this weekend and early next week as it slowly moves over the central Caribbean on Thursday, October 23.
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NHC forecasters said the wind field is expected to grow and become more symmetrical as Melissa intensifies.
Could Melissa impress Florida?
“The longer Melissa goes west, More likely to affect the US” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
” Possibility of a direct US coup from Melissa “The U.S. concern for impacts will be on the Florida Peninsula, particularly in the lower Peninsula and the Keys,” said AccuWeather Chief Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Even The US East Coast may feel some effects of Melissa – rain, wind and rough seas – later this month, even if the center remains offshore, according to AccuWeather.
Here’s what you need to know.
Where is Tropical Storm Melissa right now? See estimated route
Special note about NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path to the center of the storm. It does not show the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Satellite photos and graphics of Tropical Storm Melissa
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include a range of estimators and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help it make its forecasts.
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How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa expected to be? See timeline
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As of 5 a.m. on October 23: 50 mph
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24 hours, October 24: 60 miles
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48 hours:, October 25 70 mph
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60 hours: 80 mph, Category 1 hurricane
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72 hours, October 26 100 mph, Category 2 hurricane
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96 hours, October 27: 190 mph, Category 3 hurricane
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120 hours, 28 October: 130 mph, Category 4 hurricane
Map shows location and strength of Tropical Storm Melissa at 05:00 Thursday, October 23
As of 05:00 on October 23, Tropical Storm Melissa’s location and strength are estimated: 15.0N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
As of 5 a.m. on Thursday, October 23, Tropical Storm Melissa was located at 15.0N 74.9W. Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph.
Map shows the estimated location and strength of Tropical Storm Melissa on Friday, October 24
Melissa’s estimated strength and position at 5 a.m. on October 24, 2025: 15.6N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH. The prediction was made at 5 a.m. on October 23, 2025.
On Friday, October 24, Melissa was predicted to be at 15.6N 75.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 60 mph.
Map shows the estimated location and strength of Tropical Storm Melissa on Saturday, October 25
Melissa’s estimated strength and position at 5 a.m. on October 25, 2025: 16.4N 75.1S 60 KT 70 MPH. The prediction was made at 5 a.m. on October 23, 2025.
On Saturday, October 25, Melissa was forecast to be 16.4N 75.1W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 70 mph. To be classified as a hurricane, maximum sustained winds must reach 74 mph.
Map shows the estimated location and strength of Tropical Storm Melissa on Sunday, October 26
Melissa’s estimated strength and position at 5 a.m. on October 26: 16.7N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH. The prediction was made at 5 a.m. on October 23, 2025.
On Sunday, October 26, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.7N 76.0W. Maximum sustained winds are predicted to reach 100 mph, making Melissa a Category 2 hurricane.
Map shows the estimated location and strength of Tropical Storm Melissa on Monday, October 27
Melissa’s estimated strength and position at 5 a.m. on October 27, 2025: 16.9N 77.0S 105 KT 120 MPH. The prediction was made at 5 a.m. on October 23, 2025.
On Monday, October 27, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.9N 77.0W. Maximum sustained winds are predicted to reach 190 mph, making Melissa a Category 3 hurricane.
Map shows the estimated location and strength of Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday, October 28
Melissa’s estimated strength and position at 5 a.m. on October 28, 2025: 17.1N 78.0G 115 KT 130 MPH. The prediction was made at 5 a.m. on October 23, 2025.
On Tuesday, October 28, Melissa was predicted to be at 17.1N 78.0W. Maximum sustained winds are predicted to reach 130 mph, making Melissa a Category 4 hurricane.
Is a hurricane headed for Florida?
Not at this time, but Florida residents should be informed.
“There significant uncertainty in trace and intensity “Melissa is in the forecast,” the National Hurricane Center said, adding: “This is a very serious forecast. difficult track prediction” And ” density estimation It has its own challenges.”
“Most guidance indicates significant or even rapid intensification on days 3-5. The forecast for day 5 (Monday, October 27) now shows Melissa strengthening into a major hurricane with winds of 120 mph,” the National Hurricane Center said.
“The longer Melissa travels west, the greater the chance of catching something.” impact on the USA,said Rayno.
“The U.S. concern for impacts will be on the Florida Peninsula, particularly the lower Peninsula and the Keys. Strong westerly winds driven by the jet stream should prevent the storm from moving into Texas, Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.”
“Right now, I think the probability of any direct or even indirect impact on Florida other than waves and currents is very low, around 15%,” DaSilva said via email dated Oct. 21.
“If Florida were to see any impact, it would most likely be around the middle of next week – Wednesday through Friday (October 29-31). Nothing imminent at this time, but it’s something we’ll have to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data.”
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This article was first published in the Naples Daily News: Timeline, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa’s projected path
