How the war in Iran and its economic fallout will lead to Trump’s defeat | US-Israel war on Iran
Donald Trump is still high on the capture of Nicolás Maduro. Easy kidnapping of Venezuelan president didn’t just let Trump down control the country’s oil and critical minerals resources. This allowed him to strangle the Cuban government by denying it access to energy, raising the tantalizing prospect that he could topple the communist regime that has plagued Washington since 1959.
Trump is confident his joint venture with Israel in Iran will do the same. The bombardment of Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors did nothing to change Trump’s opinion that he could win, no matter how he defined “winning.”
Whatever war does to energy markets, the American economy can handle it. “Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly once Iran’s nuclear threat is eliminated, is a very small price to pay for the United States and the World, Security and Peace,” he said in his post on social media. “ONLY FOOLS THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
Trump’s sense of invincibility also stems from the fact that his erratic policies have so far not caused as much damage as initially feared. Despite tariff walls, fragmenting the federal workforce, deporting immigrant workers, and relentless attacks on the Fed, just a few weeks ago leading economists were wondering whether the economy could achieve this most elusive feat of all: soft landing From the period of high inflation.
The United States is also perhaps the best insulated among major developed economies against increases in energy prices. Crude oil import decreased significantly Domestic production has increased since the early 2000s. Natural gaswhose domestic price is not that sensitive Rising global markets played a greater role in energy supply.
Today, oil accounts for approximately 38% of U.S. energy consumption; That’s nearly 10 percentage points less than during the 1973 oil crisis, when Arab oil producers halted shipments to the United States to punish the United States for supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur war. Meanwhile, the share of natural gas increased from 30% to 36%.
European markets shuddered when Iran narrowed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments pass, and fainted when Qatar closed its liquefied gas facilities. But on this side of the Atlantic, Trump’s favorite indicator of the US economy, the S&P 500 index, is still hovering near an all-time high.
But no matter how high Trump rises, he still facing defeat. It is not a military defeat against what remains of Iran’s armed forces. He is about to be defeated by the only force that can stop America’s military adventures: the opposition of the American people.
The war against Iran continues extremely unpopular It’s an unusual change for a nation that has supported sending children to war from the beginning. dubious reasons. Its economic effects will not help further its popularity.
And energy self-sufficiency cannot completely isolate the United States. The price of oil, whether it comes from Texas or the Middle East, is determined in global markets. Regular gasoline has already reached its highest level since Trump took office. It exceeded $3.50 a gallon.. Government predictions now He said that retail gasoline prices will return to 2025 levels only in the autumn of 2027, while the retail price of diesel will remain above its pre-war level at least until the end of next year.
Trucking companies will largely pass on higher prices to customers. Facing higher fuel and fertilizer prices, farmers will slap them on the food price tag, too. Retailers and airlines will also be affected by rising fuel costs.
All this will undoubtedly be reflected in the March inflation reading, which is pegged at a 2.4% increase in February compared to the previous year. And all of this will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, expensive fuel at the pump is likely to impact sales of Americans’ beloved SUVs.
All of this will hit Trump’s approval ratings to the point where it hurts.
The President is aware of these risks and is therefore doing his best to reduce oil prices. The administration announced a plan to insure tankers and escort them across the strait. It has waived sanctions on some Russian oil exports and is considering ways to increase Venezuelan oil production to plug any supply gaps.
But it will take more than that to reverse the biggest rise in oil prices in more than three decades. Either the war will end, or the United States will reduce Iran’s capabilities to the point where the country can no longer threaten oil tankers passing through Hormuz.
According to his public statements, Trump believes that he can both secure Tehran’s “unconditional surrender” and that the war is “pretty much over.” But your advisors in Washington should know by now that you can do this. bomb a country to pieces We still haven’t won the war from the air and in the long term. Neither the Iranian Revolutionary Guard nor the Basij, institutions that most Iranians hate, will lay down their weapons and risk their lives. No matter how destroyed Iran’s infrastructure is, there are thousands of armed warriors on the ground who can fight against and support the enemy regime in Tehran.
Trump could backtrack on his demand for “unconditional surrender,” find alternative grounds to declare victory, and bring his fleet home. But that won’t look good. Alternatively, it could deploy ground forces, an option it has not ruled out. Or it could continue bombing and turn to civilian targets after it finishes destroying Iran’s military infrastructure.
But neither of these approaches is fast, which means the economic pain of this war will likely continue. And Trump may learn that beheading U.S. rivals is not necessarily a winning strategy everywhere in the world, no matter how easy it is to catch Maduro.
