How Trump transformed NATO’s extraordinary 48 hours

For 48 hours in Ankara, I felt as if the world was moving according to Donald Trump’s schedule.

Markets were shaken. NATO allies prepared for conflict. Ukraine sought assurance. Iran threatened to disrupt the agenda. One moment, leaders were preparing for a diplomatic crisis; next, they were describing their “love” with the president, who many feared would leave the alliance more divided than ever.

During my 25 years at CNBC, I have covered hundreds of major international events, including the G7, G8 and G20 summits, OPEC meetings, climate conferences and numerous trips to Ukraine. But never have I witnessed such a dramatic reversal of fortunes, affecting so many global players, compressed into just 48 hours.

The NATO Summit was not a simple diplomatic meeting. This has become a real-time indicator of how quickly the geopolitical landscape can change with President Trump at the center.

While major summits involving the United States inevitably revolve around Washington, this time was different. It revolved not only around a country, but also around a person.

Think about everything that happens in the game. Iranian. Russia’s war in Ukraine. Greenland. European security. Spain’s refusal to meet NATO military spending targets. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s stance with Washington is unclear. Every important issue seemed to be concentrated in a single summit, and each ultimately revolved around the US president.

To summarize, every European NATO member – plus Canada – was effectively on trial by coming to this meeting. Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had once again aggressively criticized NATO for not supporting Iran and not spending enough money on its own security.

In addition, the president once again took aim at Denmark for its refusal to cede Greenland for the greater good—the greater good of which was a bit of a moot point—and of course Spain was getting both kegs because it was even worse at its military spending than the other 30 NATO partners.

Zelenskyy was in the city once again to increase NATO support. And let’s be honest, he never knows what kind of reception he’ll get from the Leader of the Free World.

Then came the bombshell from Mr. Trump that dealing with the Iranians, the MoU, and the ceasefire were over. Markets went south and oil went north.

At this point the summit appeared to be heading towards conflict.

And yet the optics changed on a dime. Just like that the mood changed and suddenly love was in the air.

Even before Trump’s big final press conference, world leaders were quietly telling me that the meeting with Trump had been great, that he was very happy, that he had listened – actually listened – to every leader in the big closed-door meeting, and that he left in a good mood.

Wait, was this the same Donald Trump who berated his associates just a few hours ago?

Yes, apparently so.

I wasn’t so sure, but I heard it from the horse’s mouth just a few hours later, when the US president confirmed in front of thousands of journalists at the summit closing press conference that his love was real.

Standing with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Hegseth and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, the president spoke of the “tremendous love in the room” during the leaders’ meeting. “The unity was amazing,” he said. “The love was pretty wild.”

It was a remarkable reversal from Trump’s public criticism of many of the same allies just hours earlier.

The summit revealed some clear winners and losers. Hosting a trouble-free summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerged from power and appeared to be close to receiving US approval for F-35 fighter jets.

NATO secretary general Mark Rutte continued his praise for Trump, and in doing so helped maintain US relations with NATO, at least for now. Despite early attacks, Spain and Denmark walked away from Trump’s closing press conference without any harsh reactions from the United States.

Another big winner should be Zelenskyy, who seems to have raised the US president’s estimate as he stabilized the battlefield of Ukraine and took the war deep into Russia against all odds. The Ukrainian leader may even have made a deal to produce Patriot missile systems, which Kiev has long considered a priority.

Losers? Clearly, Putin would not be pleased with NATO’s show of unity, the major advance in defense spending, and the warmer reception of Ukraine from Trump.

What about Iran? This is still a big unknown.

When I had a chance to ask him a question, I asked the US president directly: “What happens next if you really give up on the ceasefire?”

I’m afraid his answer was incomprehensible. He returned to the point that Iran could never have a nuclear weapon on its watch.

Perhaps that is the lasting takeaway from these extraordinary 48 hours.

The atmosphere inside NATO changed significantly during the summit, but the biggest questions remained unanswered. What will happen next in Iran? Could the improved mood between Trump and his NATO allies extend beyond this meeting? So what does it ultimately mean for Ukraine?

These questions are much more important than political theatre. But if there’s one thing this summit shows, it’s how quickly the geopolitical landscape can change with Donald Trump at the center. Allies, competitors and markets are learning to adapt in real time.