India’s Russian oil import rebound in Oct after dip in previous quarter: Kpler data
India’s crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month decline seen in the July-September period as refineries started operating at full capacity to meet festive demand, ship tracking data showed.
Imports from Russia decreased from 2 million barrels per day in June to 1.6 million barrels per day in September.
But tanker tracking data in early October shows a recovery: Shipments of Urals and other Russian grades to India have picked up pace, supported by renewed discounts due to sluggish demand in Western markets and shipping flexibility.
Preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler showed October imports hovering around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), up nearly 250,000 bpd from the previous month (but current month data is subject to revision).
The data is from the period before US President Donald Trump’s October 15 statement claiming that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt crude oil imports from Russia. However, Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said he was not aware of such a phone call.
‘Pressure tactic’
Kpler’s Chief Research Analyst (Refining and Modeling) Sumit Ritolia believes Mr Trump’s statement is pressure tactics linked to trade negotiations rather than a reflection of an imminent policy change.
“Russian barrels are deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual and strategic reasons,” he said.
Indian refiners also said that the government has not yet made a request to stop oil imports from Russia.
India turned to buying Russian oil, which was sold at a discount, after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and avoided supplies due to its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As a result, Russia’s share in total oil imports increased from just 1.7% in 2019-20 (FY20) to 40% in 2023-24, making it India’s largest oil supplier.
In the first half of October, Russia continued to benefit from this status. Iraq was the second largest supplier of crude oil to India with around 1.01 million barrels per day, followed by Saudi Arabia with 8,30,000 barrels per day. The USA became India’s fourth largest supplier, surpassing the UAE with 647,000 barrels per day. The UAE supplied 394,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler.
It is vital for India
Russian crude oil remains structurally vital to India, accounting for roughly 34% of total imports and offering discounts too significant for refiners to ignore, Mr. Ritolia said.
“There was a lot of talk about the decline in imports in the July-September period. This was less due to tariff concerns and more to seasonal factors such as increased maintenance activities at PSU refineries, especially MRPL, CPCL and BORL,” he said.
In fact, most contracts for deliveries through early September were finalized 6-10 weeks in advance, meaning deals were largely locked in before July 31. In other words, the declines in July-September were mostly due to the refinery processing less crude oil due to maintenance schedules.
Despite lower discounts compared to 2023, Russian barrels continue to be one of the most economical raw material options available to Indian refiners due to the discounts received and the high GPW (Gross Product Value) margin achieved from grades such as Urals.
Discounts of 1.5-2 dollars in July/August are on average between 3.5-5 dollars per barrel.
Replacing Russian crude is not difficult as more barrels could arrive from the Middle East, Latin America and the US, similar to India’s pre-2022 crude.
Technical constraint is minimal as Indian refineries can process a variety of crude grades.
But whether New Delhi is ready to make that change is another matter, he said. “The reality is that cutting imports from Russia would be difficult, costly and risky.”
Substitution will require rapid scaling from multiple suppliers at higher costs (freight, weaker discounts). If margins tighten or retail prices rise, the result could be inflation, political backlash and poor refinery profitability.
He believes that, just like with Iranian barrels, refiners will not leave a dollar on the table unless instructed to do so by the government. Although there is a stronger push for diversification, contracts for Russian crude are generally signed 6-10 weeks before arrival. Rewiring all of this takes time. In practice, Indian refiners are gradually expanding their baskets not to replace Russia in the short term, but to increase energy security, continuity and flexibility.
India has consistently pursued an independent foreign and energy policy that balances economic interests with diplomatic relations. A sudden move away from Russian crude oil would undermine the energy security strategy and is unlikely unless official sanctions similar to those imposed on Iran or Venezuela are imposed.
“At this stage, India is unlikely to implement structural cuts just to satisfy political pressure from the US and EU. If Washington intensifies pressure, Indian refiners could cut tokens of around 100,000-200,000 barrels per day to demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners. But these cuts are likely to be more symbolic than transformative,” he added.
Importing higher volumes from the US to appease Trump is an option, but the rise is limited to around 400,000-500,000 barrels per day. This is because US grades face both logistical disadvantages, economic challenges and compatibility issues with Indian refining systems.
Kpler data shows India’s US crude oil imports are averaging 310,000 bpd so far in 2025, an increase from 199,000 bpd in 2024, reaching an annual high of around 500,000 bpd (expected in October).
It was published – 17 October 2025 15:05 IST
