Iran’s ruling ideology driving global confrontation, analysts say

According to Mehdi Ghadimi, the ideology behind Iran’s governing system is not theoretical. This was something he had been taught since childhood.

“You are told that you are part of a small group chosen by God to revive God’s religion and fight to defend it,” the Iranian journalist told Fox News Digital, describing the message repeated in schools, mosques and state media.

This initial indoctrination, he said, framed the world clearly: a divine struggle between good and evil, with Iran’s leadership positioned at the center of a religious mission.

Iran’s system of governance is often described in political terms, but critics and former insiders say the core of the system is much more radical; a belief structure based on religious absolutism, messianic expectation, and a worldview that leaves little room for compromise.

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As a new generation of commanders rises within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the recent military coups as part of the Epic Operation Rage, analysts warn that this ideology may become even more entrenched.

Figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Ahmad Vahidi are often cited as part of a group shaped by years of conflict in Iraq and across the region that sees religion, security and survival as inseparable.

Not just a government, but a belief system

Central to this worldview is the belief in the Mahdi, a messianic figure in Shiite Islam whose return is expected to usher in a final era of justice after chaos.

Twelver Shiism is the belief prevalent among Shiites; Mahdi, defined as the 12th Imam, is alive but hidden and will come back one day. Iran’s political system positions the religious leader as its protector.

Critics say the framework gives political authority a religious dimension that can make it harder to challenge.

Primary school girls wearing traditional headscarves sit in a classroom, Tehran, Iran, October 1, 1997. (Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images)

“For the mullahs in Iran, the idea of ​​Mahdi is about power rather than personal belief,” said Lisa Daftari, foreign policy analyst and editor-in-chief of the Foreign Affairs Desk. “They use this to suggest that the views of the religious leader are not just political views, but carry some kind of divine weight.”

“The system is set up so that disagreeing with the leader can be portrayed as questioning the Imam himself,” he said.

“This turns ordinary policy debates into something almost untouchable… you are no longer arguing with a politician, you are opposing a sacred figure.”

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Commanders and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps met with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on August 17, 2023. (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran/WANA/Reuters)

There are no real moderates

Ghadimi argues that this structure leaves little room for genuine political diversity.

“Groups labeled ‘moderate’, ‘reformist’ or ‘pro-Western’ are created so the West can negotiate with them,” he said.

“No one within the Islamic Republic thinks of anything other than defeating the Western world and establishing Islamic domination on a global scale.”

From belief to action

According to Iran expert Daftari, the Mahdi doctrine also provides a flexible justification for the policy.

“Many insiders know very well that this language is used strategically,” he said. “The Mahdi story offers leadership a way to claim moral and religious protection for decisions that often seek to preserve the regime or expand its sphere of influence.”

“When they talk about ‘laying the groundwork’ for the Mahdi, the phrase can be expanded to include almost anything: crushing protests, supporting militias abroad, or asking people to accept more economic pain.”

“This religious framework makes compromise much more difficult,” he added. “If you convince your base that you are fulfilling a sacred duty…backing down could be perceived as a betrayal of God’s plan.”

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A billboard depicting Iran’s religious leaders since 1979 is displayed above a highway in Tehran on March 10, 2026. (via AFP/Getty Images)

A worldview formed early

Ghadimi said the message is reinforced from childhood and shapes how generations understand their role in society.

In schools, media and mosques, ideology is embedded in daily life, leaving little room for alternative narratives, he said.

Analysts say this framework helps explain how the system sustains itself even under pressure.

It also contributes to a worldview in which conflict is not temporary but part of a larger, ongoing struggle.

“The Islamic government sees itself as obliged to enforce Islamic law throughout the world, based on its own interpretation of the Quran,” Ghadimi told Fox News Digital, adding that the regime “sees itself as the leader of this faith globally.”

“From the beginning, they harbor hatred towards Iranians and Jews, whom they see as enemies of Islam, and they view killing them (as on October 7 and the recent killings in Iran) as divinely rewarded actions, similar to what Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi once believed,” he said.

Ghadimi said, “No one within the structure of the Islamic Republic thinks of anything other than defeating the Western world and establishing Islamic dominance on a global scale.” he said.

Critics say that within this framework, Iran is not only pursuing national interests but acting in accordance with what it sees as a broader religious mandate.

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In this photo posted on the official website of the Iranian supreme leader’s office, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands greeting air force commanders during a meeting in Tehran on February 7, 2017. (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran/AP)

Violence and belief

Some critics argue that within this framework, violence can take on religious meaning.

“They see killing them as divinely rewarded actions,” Ghadimi said.

Still, analysts say the combination of messianic faith and absolutist ideology creates a system in which confrontation is not only expected but justified.

A cycle from which there is no easy way out

An Iranian official rejected these characterizations and warned that the economic collapse and destruction caused by the war could lead to long-term resentment.

“If a country is in ruins, poverty spreads. From this poverty, hatred, resentment and desire for revenge arise, and this cycle of hostility can continue for years. It is not right to think that everything will be over the day after the ceasefire. Even if there is no hostile government left, people in society who have lost everything may be dragged into seeking revenge.”

According to Ghadimi, the issue is not just how Iran behaves, but how it understands itself.

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People gather at Revolution Square on March 1, 2026, to mourn the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a joint Israeli-US operation on February 28 in Tehran, Iran. (Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images)

According to critics, if the system is based on a belief that blends religion, power and mission, then policies such as oppression at home and conflict outside may not be temporary tactics, but structural features.

And if moderation within this system is limited, as some claim, then the challenge for policymakers is not just to negotiate but to understand the ideology that drives it.