Kalshi traders give low odds the U.S. takes a stake in OpenAI in 2026
U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Open AI CEO Sam Altman (L) react during a working lunch meeting of G7 members, partner countries and AI business leaders as part of the G7 summit in Evian, eastern France, on June 17, 2026. A G7 summit will be held in Evian-les-Bains, France, near Switzerland, between 15 and 17 June, and will be attended by country leaders as well as EU foreign policy chiefs and ministers. Brazil, Canada, United Arab Emirates and Türkiye. (Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Julia Demaree Nikhinson | Afp | Getty Images
While OpenAI has reportedly proposed giving the Trump administration a stake in the company, Kalshi traders see strong odds that such a deal could happen this year.
Just last week Finance Times reported that the artificial intelligence giant proposed giving a 5 percent stake to the US government. However, Kalshi investors see less than a 30% chance that the US government will take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic.
The Kalshi event asks which companies the US government will buy shares in this year, and will be resolved once the government confirms it by news sources or official filings.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman first shared the idea of offering shares to the government with the Trump administration in 2025, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC last month. The source asked not to be named because the details are confidential.
Last week, President Donald Trump avoided answering CNBC’s question about the proposed OpenAI stake. Instead, he discussed the 10% stake the government bought from Intel last summer.
“Intel came in. They had a problem,” Trump said. “I said, ‘I can fix your problem, but I want 10% of the company.'”
Kalshi traders see over 60% chance the government will get a piece of the quantum computing game this year Rigetti Computer or D-Wave Quantumas well as semiconductor manufacturer Global Foundries.
In May, the US Department of Commerce announced that it would give $2 billion in grants to nine companies in the field of quantum computing. National Institute of Standards and Technology He said he would take a minority, non-controlling stake in each company. The companies included Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and GlobalFoundries.
Wall Street Magazine He also reported in May that the Trump administration could make deals with several private sector drone companies, such as Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies, citing people familiar with the matter. Some of those deals may also require stock, some people told the Journal.
Both Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies are involved in the Kalshi agreement on government shares. Investors think there is just over a 50% chance that the government will take a stake in the former, and less than a 40% chance that it will take a stake in the latter.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
