Kemi Badenoch ‘has to adapt’ her rhetoric to take on Andy Burnham | Kemi Badenoch

“So Andy Burnham seems like a nice guy.” These were the somewhat unexpected opening words of Kemi Badenoch’s first speech since the change of prime minister. But make no mistake: He was there to bury his opponent.

Even Badenoch skeptics within the Conservative party and further afield agree that the Conservative Party leader is becoming more confident and able to craft an increasingly coherent message based on the promise of economic sufficiency for his party.

But Burnham now faces a different challenge as he replaces Keir Starmer.

The former mayor of Greater Manchester is a new face who is likely to do well in the polls, as well as having a more media-friendly personality with an ability to deflect Badenoch’s taunts using self-deprecating humour. viral social media reaction After the Conservative Party leader last month described her as “a pair of eyelashes and a black T-shirt”.

“It has to adapt; like anything where your opponent changes,” said one senior Conservative. “Personally, Burnham is much more likeable. [than Starmer]and comes with a decent popularity rating. He has to wait for their weakness, and it immediately becomes clear: Where does the money come from for all these gifts?”

That was one of the main themes of Badenoch’s speech, which he gave in the sweltering sun on a rooftop terrace in central London on Thursday morning.

He repeatedly questioned how the new prime minister would pay for his first flurry of policy, labeling Burnham’s philosophy as “cap a price and send the bill somewhere else”. The other main theme was ambition; Badenoch described Burnham as a prime minister who gave “small answers to big problems”.

A senior Conservative MP said such message discipline would be required when taking on the new operation at Number 10, especially given Badenoch’s tendency to occasionally get caught up in culture-war debates.

The MP said: “When he first became leader, there was a concern that he would constantly talk about culture-war issues. But that did not happen. The focus, as it is now, should be on the economy and jobs.”

One manifestation of Badenoch’s growing confidence is a schedule of regular press conferences and lengthy media Q&As, often with no specific policy to announce. This is very similar to the schedule Nigel Farage was on last summer, before a by-election campaign and concerns over questions about his finances disrupted that.

And while he still largely maintains a take-no-prisoners approach, Badenoch now has a rhetorical record other than the sometimes caustic hostility he used against Starmer and Rachel Reeves in a speech that some Tories say launched his comeback. he emptied himself the then chancellor’s budget with almost astonishing brutality.

Luke Tryl, director of UK pollsters More in Common and a regular observer of focus groups, said such an approach would not work against politicians who were more comfortable keeping to themselves.

“If Burnham is seen to laugh it off, it may be less effective against this fragility than it is,” Tryl said. “Part of the reason this worked so well against Reeves and why the budget response got such rave reviews was because Reeves looked so confused, I think. [the new chancellor] John Healey and Burnham will not do that.”

There are bigger questions for Badenoch; particularly why his rising ratings in personal polls have not yet translated into greater support for his party, and whether his mission to reshape the Conservative Party with his muscular right-wing approach will put off more moderate voters.

But for now, much of the coming weeks will be devoted to determining how best to deal with the Prime Minister, who is a much more slippery target than his predecessor.

“We have a summer to figure this out,” the senior Tory said. “But it needs to be nimble; what worked in July may not work in September.”