Labor’s own supporters say time’s up for Allan government, poll shows
Updated ,first published
There is a distinct mood for political change in Victoria; Only a quarter of voters agree that Labor deserves another term in office, and almost half of voters are declaring the end of the two-party system.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this imprint across two surveys in May and June, reveals the continued rise of One Nation at the expense of both major parties, with Pauline Hanson’s anti-establishment movement on course to become the most popular political party in Australia’s most politically progressive state.
This shows One Nation’s primary support is up 3 points since the last poll to 24 per cent, Labor is down 1 point to 26 per cent and the Coalition is down 3 points to 26 per cent.
The breakdown of individual survey results, though based on smaller sample sizes, clearly reveals One Nation’s trajectory. When the first poll was conducted in May, the party was at 20 percent. In the second poll, conducted last week, primary support for One Nation rose to 28 percent; this was the strongest figure for any party.
The published results are the average of two surveys.
Resolve does not calculate a bipartisan preferred outcome, but senior strategists from Labor and the Coalition privately acknowledge that if these primary vote numbers are repeated in the November election, Victoria will almost certainly face a hung parliament.
This has mixed consequences for Prime Minister Jacinta Allan, whose leadership has again been the subject of speculation ahead of Tuesday’s convention. Although it has avoided the kind of electoral disaster that would have caused immediate trouble, Labour’s electoral outlook remains grim.
Individual poll results show Labour’s primary support improved immediately after May’s state budget, which included cost-of-living measures such as half-price public transport and a 20 per cent discount on vehicle registrations, before falling amid the leaders’ final murmurs in last week’s poll.
Allan’s supporters will portray this as the self-fulfilling result of a destabilization campaign waged by a small group of party leaders inside and outside parliament. His critics, and perhaps some worried MPs on the fence about the leadership, will see this as evidence that Labor is heading towards election defeat under Allan’s leadership.
The coalition’s primary support has also fallen across polls.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said one takeaway is uncontroversial. “One Nation is on the rise right now, as it is everywhere,” he said. “If they continue to get votes like this, the limit will disappear.
“People in Victoria need to start asking questions about who the state leaders will be and what the state policies will be. At the moment most people are acting as if they are voting for Pauline or against immigration.”
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, a Queensland senator, also serves as the party’s president. He has yet to announce who he has chosen to lead his party in Victoria. Adam Giles, former NT premier The man, who now lives in Victoria and oversees some of Gina Rinehart’s business interests, was a key attendee at last week’s One Nation fundraiser in South Melbourne.
Giles said at the weekend that he was not a member of One Nation, had “no plans” to join and had “no intention of joining” the Victorian parliament.
However, he did not ignore his leadership role if approached.
“I’ll consider it. I’m not saying yes, but if it was voluntary, part-time, I would consider it,” he said.
Hanson said at a fundraiser on Friday night that One Nation would be willing to partner with the Victorian Coalition in government. Former Liberal premier Jeff Kennett has called on his party to embrace the idea. Opposition leader Jess Wilson did not rule out the possibility when asked at the weekend whether she would work with One Nation.
One of the most striking figures in the Resolve survey is the percentage of people willing to vote Labor who no longer believe the government should be re-elected. When asked whether the Allan Labor government deserved another term, 31 per cent of Labor voters disagreed.
The question also confirmed the strength of anti-government sentiment among One Nation voters. Just 4 per cent agree Labor deserves another four years.
The flip side of this question – whether the Wilson-led opposition can govern the country – has produced an encouraging response for the Liberal and National coalition. While 46 percent of the participants agreed with this opinion, 35 percent did not agree.
Reed said the results reflected a clear mood for a change of government in Victoria. He contrasted the results with the voter sentiment that accompanied the last term of the last long-serving Labor government in NSW, where the party transitioned leaders but was unable to avoid an electoral blowout.
“This is an end-of-days feeling that we last saw before the 2011 NSW election, when Labor stayed in power for too long,” Reed said. “I don’t think a leadership change will make much difference at this stage.
“The question is whether One Nation and the Liberal Party will share the spoils, or whether one will gain the upper hand before November. Many people will vote for whoever they think will win and create change.”
Speaking before the poll was released on Monday morning, Allan said he did not expect a leadership challenge on Tuesday and that no one in the party room – including deputy leader and likely replacement Ben Carroll – had spoken to him about resigning.
“I have a strong, united Labor team. We are united by a sense of shared values and work very hard every day for the communities we represent,” the Prime Minister said.
Carroll told the same news conference on Tuesday that he would not seek to become prime minister but refused to rule out wanting to become prime minister “if he had the job I wanted”.
“I always aspired to be the minister of education. We have a prime minister and he works harder than anyone else every day,” he said. “I want to serve Jacinta Allan.”
allan said exclusive interview with Age on saturday He said the growing support for One Nation and the prospect of a state coalition between the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation in Victoria was worrying.
“What concerns me is what this will mean for our society, our society and our economy,” he said.
“I think One Nation is a risk to working people and families everywhere.”
The twin Resolve polls of 1,100 voters also asked whether the two-party system, the political duopoly that has defined Victoria’s parliamentary representation since the end of the Second World War, is coming to an end. Only 13 percent disagreed with this proposal.
Poll results suggest things are cooking as Victoria heads towards volatile and unpredictable state elections on November 28. Allan’s approval rating appears to have solidified, falling back to minus 35 at the beginning of the year. Wilson is generally liked by voters, with a positive approval rating of 15, although this is a worse result than the last poll.
On Sunday Wilson spoke at a “scrap the tax” rally in Allan’s hometown of Bendigo, organized by the renamed emergency services and those opposed to a voluntary levy levied on property owners at the start of this financial year.
Wilson promised to abolish the tax and return to previous tax arrangements if he led the next government. Allan faces a fierce challenge from the Nationals and One Nation to retain his Bendigo East seat, which he has held since 1999. Wilson said the Liberals would also be candidates.
The prime minister, who replaces Daniel Andrews, who retires in September 2023, must also overcome significant historical obstacles for Labor to remain in power. No Labor government has won four consecutive terms in Victoria. Labor has never won an election after changing leaders, as Joan Kirner and John Brumby were dismissed at two previous attempts.
Allan and Wilson are vying to become the first female leader to win a state election in Victoria.
From next month, as part of this imprint’s expanded coverage of state politics ahead of the state election, Resolve Political Monitor will double its monthly survey sample of Victorian voters.
This will enable Age to publish monthly voting intentions and responses to additional questions designed to improve our understanding of the issues most important to this state.
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Chip Le Grand leads our state politics reporting team. He had previously served as the newspaper’s chief correspondent and was a journalist with 30 years of experience.Connect via email.
Patrick Hatch is a transport correspondent for The Age and a former business correspondent.Connect with: X or email.
